Could it have been the new Gallup pollthat drove stocks up almost 200 points on Tuesday? That blockbuster survey, regarded by many as the blue-chip gold standard for election forecasting, pointed to an unprecedented Republican landslide tsunami in the generic congressional race. That blowout could include a GOP House gain of 65 to 70 seats, and a bare-majority 10-seat pickup in the Senate.
Released Monday night, the Gallup numbers demolished the new narrative of the elite mainstream media in Washington, and their prediction that somehow the Democrats are mounting a serious comeback based on frantic Obama campaigning and a slew of multimillion-dollar negative campaign ads.
Now, I acknowledge that most market mavens attributed the rally to the better-than-expected September ISM nonmanufacturing report, which printed 10 A.M. Tuesday. And yes, this did matter for the market. The composite index came in at 53, a bit better than expected. It beat August by two points, although it was still lower than July and below the second-quarter average of 55.
Soft, but growing. No double-dip recession.