Intrade Opens a Betting Line on Brian Moynihan's Head

Brian Moynihan
Fabrice Coffrini | AFP | Getty Images
Brian Moynihan

As of this morning, you can now bet on whether the CEO of Bank of America, Brian Moynihan, will get whacked by his board of directors.

Merry Christmas, Mr. Moynihan.

Moynihan's future at BofA now joins bets about the weather, election speculation -- and the possible observation of a" hypothetical massive scalar elementary particle "called the Higgs boson."

Intrade, "The Prediction Market" that allows "investors" to speculate about the future, has added Brian Moynihan's departure to its list of tradable events.

(Do the SEC & FEC actually permit this kind of thing? Apparently so.)

But back to Brian Moynihan, and his future career at Bank of America.

Intrade's website explains their pricing:

"The contract will settle (expire) at 100 ($10.00) if Brian Moynihan departs as CEO of Bank of America before midnight ET on the date specified in the contract. The contract will settle (expire) at 0 ($0.00) if Brian Moynihan does not depart as CEO of Bank of America before midnight ET on the date specified in the contract."

They also define the terms:

"A departure may include (but is not limited to) resignation, retirement, being fired, being demoted, or being assigned another position within the company. It does not include the appointment by Bank of America of a co-CEO to work with Brian Moynihan."

Happily, Intrade clarifies a point many of us might be forgiven for wondering: Are we talking 'contract' in the Wall Street sense -- or'contract' in the Soprano's sense?

The website helpfully explains:

"A departure does not include death. In the event of Brian Moynihan's death the contract will be declared void, all trades will be reversed and all trading fees refunded."

Let there be no doubt: Intrade is a classy shop.

As of the time of this writing, trading in speculation about Moynihan's future has been—well, it's been a little thin.

At 10:30 a.m. the trade volume is zero.

Also worth noting: There is no ask side quoted on the trade.

Good luck explaining this trade to the guys in your risk management department.

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