"I think the (stock) market takes a hit," wrote Jack Ablin, CIO of Harris Private Bank. "Overseas markets were off between one and two percent, although the biggest victims were the highest fliers."
Unrest in the Mideast has taken a new turn with the possible overthrow of the government of Libya, which is the first key oil producer to be affected. Libya supplies just about 2 percent of the world's oil, but it is a very high quality.
"It will also be a reflection of more nervousness about the impact of events in the Middle East, which will affect the global economy. Add to that a failure to resolve the U.S. budget impasse, and the outlook will look a lot different than a month ago," Yergin noted.
Jack Ablin, CIO of Harris Private Bank thinks the tipping point oil price is a bit higher than $100.
Ablin said he thinks the economy could take a hit if oil heads back towards the $140 level it reached in 2008. "$4 a gallon (gasoline) will begin to weigh on the consumer and our incipient recovery," he wrote. Ablin charted gasoline against crude, and his chart shows that as oil headed into the high $130s, gasoline went above $4 a gallon in 2008.
Gasoline prices averaged $3.14 per gallon in the last week, according to the Energy Information Administration.
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