On Monday, investors were struggling to determine what’s next for both the Dow and S&P with pros keeping a close eye on upcoming economic reports.
As you likely know, the S&P 500 has tumbled nearly 7 percent since late April after a barrage of soft data called the recovery into question.
With a fresh batch of numbers on the way, we’re likely beginning a critical week for investors, according to pro trader Stephen Weiss. Take a look at all that’s coming:
Tue: China Inflation, U.S. Retail Sales
Wed:CPI, Industrial Production
Thr: Housing starts, Phila Fed, Jobless
Fri: Leading Indicators
“(The new data) will determine if the market goes a lot lower or if it bases and goes higher,” Weiss says.
What should you be watching? How should you position, now?
Instant Insights with the Fast Money Traders
”My bet is that (the new economic data) sends the market lower,” Weiss says. Essentially he anticipates weak results - and in turn expects the weak data to not only drag down sentiment - but call estimates into question. “I don’t like that energy and materials estimates went higher while the economy is heading the other way. I think earnings estimates will have to come down.”
In addition to the latest economic data, Pete Najarian suggests watching the Vix . “Since June 1st the Vix has broken above the 50 and 100-day and now it’s moving toward the 200-day,” he says.
In other words, although the fear index is relatively low, it’s moving to the upper end of its range. “That shows a bit of fear is coming back into the market,” he says. That could be market negative because the spiking Vix may be a signal that risk appetite is falling. In turn,that suggests investors will be unwilling to shrug off much of anything.
If you're looking for a trade Brian Kelly suggests short oil via a short position in the USO . "China CPI may be north of 6% and if that happens I expect China will tighten," he says. In turn that would drag down oil.
Pete Najarian adds that oil may also be a valuable market 'tell.' “If oil goes lower so will the market,” he says.
If you’re a short term trader, and you're looking for a pop - Steve Grasso thinks in the very short term bank stocks could catch a bid in part because of the rebalance coming in the Russell 2000 and also due to talk that bank capital requirements may be smaller than expected. However that’s a very short term trade. He also says “technically the XLF is challenged and remains challenged.”
In the long-term Grasso expects the market to go lower, and says his clients are still putting money to work in defensive sectors such as Consumer Staples, Health Care and Utilities, "sectors that are close or holding the 50-day.” That too is not a vote of confidence in the forthcoming economic data.
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MERGER MONDAY: WHO’S NEXT?
VF Corp., the owner of the North Face and Wrangler Jeans brands announced it will snatch up boot-maker Timberland for $2 billion dollars.
What should you make of it?
Hear from retail analyst Brian Sozzi of Wall Street Strategies. Watch the video now!
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Trader disclosure: On June 13, 2011, the following stocks and commodities mentioned or intended to be mentioned on CNBC’s "Fast Money" were owned by the "Fast Money" traders; Steve Cortes owns (GOOG). Steve Cortes is short (BIDU). Steve Cortes is short Nikkei. Steve Cortes is short Australian dollars. Steve Cortes is short silver. Steve Cortes is short EUR. Patty Edwards is long canadian dollar FXC. Patty Edwards is long (XLK). Joe Terranova owns (XOM), (KSS), (CVI), (OXY), (TM), (BJ), (DIS), (PFE), (V), (HPQ), (FLX), (JPM), (MCD), (PEP), (VRTS). Joe Terranova is short (DELL). Pete Najarian Owns (GE), (AAPL), (MSFT), (MOS), (CE) and (CLF). Steve Grasso Owns (AKS), (AMD), (ASTM), (BA), (BAC), (C), (D), (HOV), (JPM), (LIT), (LPX), (MHY), (NDAQ), (PFE) and (PRST); Stephen Weiss Owns (QCOM), (JPM), (EMC), (DVN), (COP), (HK), (KEY), (CMA), (TWM) and (DE). Stephen Weiss is short (FWLT). Stephen Weiss is short (FLR).
For Steve Grasso
Stuart Frankel & Its Partners Own (ABX)
Stuart Frankel & Its Partners Own (CSCO)
Stuart Frankel & Its Partners Own (CUBA)
Stuart Frankel & Its Partners Own (FDX)
Stuart Frankel & Its Partners Own (GERN)
Stuart Frankel & Its Partners Own (HPQ)
Stuart Frankel & Its Partners Own (HSPO)
Stuart Frankel & Its Partners Own (MU)
Stuart Frankel & Its Partners Own (MSFT)
Stuart Frankel & Its Partners Own (NYX)
Stuart Frankel & Its Partners Own (PFE)
Stuart Frankel & Its Partners Own (PRST)
Stuart Frankel & Its Partners Own (RDC)
Stuart Frankel & Its Partners Own (SDS)
Stuart Frankel & Its Partners Own (UAL)
Stuart Frankel & Its Partners Own (XRX)
Stuart Frankel & Its Partners Are Short (QQQQ)
Stuart Frankel & Its Partners Are Short (AAPL)
For Brian Kelly
Accounts Managed By Brian Kelly Capital Own (GLD)
Accounts Managed By Brian Kelly Capital Are Long New Zealand Dollar
Accounts Managed By Brian Kelly Capital Own (DBA)
Accounts Managed By Brian Kelly Capital Own (USO) Puts
Accounts Managed By Brian Kelly Capital Are Short Euro
Accounts Managed By Brian Kelly Capital Are Short Australian Dollar
Accounts Managed by Brian Kelly Capital Are Long U.S. Dollar
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