Federal Reserve intervention in the economy has profound implications for not only the prices of goods and services, but also financial assets.
The Fed has kept the Fed Funds rate at close to zero for over three years now, with a promise to remain low at least through the middle of next year. As a result, investors across the globe are forced into risky assets that offer better return potential.
This rotation of money into stocks, commodities, high yield bonds, real estate, etc, has lifted the prices of these assets relative to where prices would be otherwise. And higher asset prices have been supportive of our economic recovery.
However, the Fed’s action does not come without risk.
Many economists believe that the Fed’s large-scale monetary policy (to include rate cuts and “Quantitative Easing” ) will eventually lead to widespread inflationary pressures across the economy. Others say that forcing investors into risky assets could lead to asset bubbles the likes of which we are very familiar with by now. At the very least, we think the Fed is creating a problem of “moral hazard” which may be difficult to unwind in the future.
Old, anachronistic investors believed that they could, under certain circumstances, lose all of their money when making an investment. But the notion of “caveat emptor” seems to have been lost as the Federal Reserve, Treasury Department, and Congress joined forces to save the financial system. Investors learned that the stock market was far too important to the consumer psyche to let it fall too far. Investors also learned that many companies, and therefore investments in those companies, were simply “too big to fail”.