Economy

Rapid Update - An outlook for U.S. GDP

CNBC Rapid Update offers a new measure for how much an economic report changes the outlook on Wall Street for US growth forecasts. With each major report that impacts Gross Domestic Product, Moody's Analytics and CNBC measure how much the new data changes the average tracking forecast among a select group of Wall Street economists. A tracking forecast is an estimate for GDP that changes that changes with incoming data.

Updated: September 20, 2018

GDP Tracking Estimates, annualized % change

Consensus
2018 Q2
2018 Q3
Median 4.3 3.3
Low and highest median estimates to date 3.4 to 4.3 3.2 to 3.5
Average 4.3 3.4
# of Estimates 9 13

How 2018Q2 GDP tracking estimates have changed, annualized % change, ppt

 
Median
Average
Wholesale trade (Mar), CPI (Apr) 0 0
Retail sales (Apr), Business inventories (Mar) 0 0.1
Housing starts (Apr), Industrial production (Apr) 0 0
New-home sales (Apr) 0 0
Existing-home sales (Apr) 0 0
Durable goods orders (Apr), Retail sales (annual revisions), Wholesale trade (annual revisions) -0.1 -0.2
GDP (2018Q1-second estimate), Advance goods deficit (Apr), Advance inventories (Apr) 0 0.1
Personal income and spending (Apr) 0.2 0.2
Employment (May), Construction spending (Apr) 0 0
Vehicle sales (May), Factory orders (Apr) 0 0
International trade (Apr) 0 0.1
CPI (May) 0 0
Retail sales (May), Business inventories (Apr) 0 0.1
Industrial production (May) 0 0
Housing starts (May) 0 0
Existing-home sales (May) 0 0
New-home sales (May) 0 0
Durable goods orders (May), Advance goods deficit (May), Advance inventories (May) 0 0
GDP (2018Q1-third estimate) 0.1 0.1
Personal income and spending (May) -0.5 -0.4
Construction spending (May) 0 0
Factory orders (May) 0 0
Vehicle sales (Jun) 0 0
International trade (May), Employment (June) 0 0
Wholesale trade (May) 0 0
CPI (Jun) 0 0
Retail sales (Jun), Business inventories (May) 0.1 0.1
Industrial production (Jun) 0 0
Housing starts (Jun) 0 0
Existing-home sales (June) 0 0
New-home sales (Jun) 0 0
Durable goods orders (Jun), Advance goods deficit (Jun), Advance inventories (Jun) 0 -0.1
GDP (2018Q1-advance estimate) 0 -0.1
Construction spending (Jun) 0 0
Factory orders (Jun) 0 0
International trade (Jun), Employment (Jul) 0 0
Wholesale trade (Jun) 0 0
CPI (Jul) 0 0
Retail sales (Jul), Industrial production (Jul), Business inventories (Jun) 0 0
Existing-home sales (Jul) 0 0
New-home sales (Jul) 0 0
Durable goods orders (Jul) 0 0
GDP (2018Q2-second estimate) 0.1 0.1
Personal income and spending (Jul) 0 0
Construction spending (Jul) 0.1 0.1
International trade (Jul), Vehicle sales (Aug) 0 0
Factory orders (Jul) 0 0
Wholesale trade (Jul) 0 0
Retail sales (Aug), Industrial production (Aug), Business inventories (Jul) 0 0
Existing-home sales (Aug) 0 0

How 2018Q3 GDP tracking estimates have changed, annualized % change, ppt

 
Median
Average
Factory orders (Jun), Vehicle sales (Jul) -0.1 -0.1
International trade (Jun), Employment (Jul) 0 -0.2
Wholesale trade (Jun) 0 0
CPI (Jul) 0 0
Retail sales (Jul), Industrial production (Jul), Business inventories (Jun) 0 0
Existing-home sales (Jul) 0 0
New-home sales (Jul) 0 0
Durable goods orders (Jul) 0.2 0.2
Advance goods deficit (Jul), Advance inventories (Jul) -0.1 -0.1
GDP (2018Q2-second estimate) 0 0
Personal income and spending (Jul) 0 0
Construction spending (Jul) 0 0
International trade (Jul), Vehicle sales (Aug) 0 0
Factory orders (Jul) 0 0
Wholesale trade (Jul) 0 0
CPI (Aug) 0 0
Retail sales (Aug), Industrial production (Aug), Business inventories (Jul) 0.1 0.2
Housing starts (Aug) 0 0
Existing-home sales (Aug) 0 0

GDP Forecasts, annualized % change

Consensus
2018Q2
2018Q3
Median 4.2 3.2
Average 4.2 3.2
# of Estimates 9 10

Source:CNBC/Moody's Analytics

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