Crude oil found our major resistance target early in Monday's session, before selling off to a low of $95.92. The low, although roughly 40 cents from our major support target and retracement point, showed strength to recover and trade back above 97.
So what moved this market Monday? Pure profit taking against $97.77 to $97.90. Although some may believe the pipeline issues through Arkansas had a hand in the recovery, all you have to do is look at the equity market and how it roared back. These markets have traded very technically, so stick to the technicals, keep the trade short, and if it is not working, then get out!
Look for a close above $96.45 to maintain momentum. A close above new highs and above $98 will be very bullish, signaling a likely test up to $100. Only a close below $95.92, and furthermore $95.55, will show signs of a failure.
If you want to play the long side of the crude market, consider the covered future position. Let use the forward contract of June. You could buy a June crude $97.00 at-the-money put for $2,250, as well as buying the June crude futures contract at $97.00. Since we're using June, you downside is theoretically covered for 44 days, and the risk on the trade is capped to what you paid for the option. Your upside potential is unlimited.
If you are bearish, then instead you should buy the $97.00 call for $2,450 and sell the futures contract at $97.00. This caps your upside risk at what you paid for the call.