On this first day of November, you can expect capital inflows to give stocks an upward bias. But the overall technical picture still looks quite weak.
Friday's and Monday's sessions will be pivotal, as we will see if there is fresh, beginning-of-the-month buying coming into the market from fund managers this late in the year. Meanwhile, it is worth remembering that many traders and investors locked in profits ahead of the FOMC statement on Wednesday.
Equities have continued to consolidate, with the S&P 500 holding one of the tightest overnight ranges we have seen in recent weeks. In Friday morning trading, the S&P December e-mini has stayed quiet, holding Thursday's low of 1,750.25.
That Thursday low came off of a small 20-plus-point correction off of Wednesday morning's highs, in what has the feel of a potential short-term blow-off top. That occurs when a steep increase is followed by a steep decline—which is just what we could get now.
A failure to close back above 1,757 through Monday's session will be further confirmation that a correction could be at hand. And a close on new lows below 1,750.25 will signal a further correction. Although there is support at 1,742.75, the market should still gravitate toward the 1,734.50 to 1,736 level, as this would represent a roughly 2 percent correction from the highs.