(Click for video linked to a searchable transcript of this Mad Money segment)
Although the current storm may be all about Ukraine, political squalls are nothing new to the stock market. And after examining many, many squalls, Jim Cramer has found that they tend to follow a pattern.
Of course, there's always a chance that current events are the exception rather than the rule; nonetheless, Cramer believes the pattern warrants close attention.
Day 1
In our scenario, Day 1 was Mon., March 3. This is the day when investors parse through events; in this case the call for sanctions against Russia and the so-called "dangerous escalation" of events in Ukraine. "This is when the market worries that there are outliers that could do some real damage. Almost all stocks go down on day one," Cramer said.
Day 2
"On Day 2, all stocks go down again as those who were brain-dead on day one take action while the media remains hyper-focused on any and every negative they can find," Cramer said.
Day 3
"This is the day when the Bristol-Myers cohort rallies," Cramer said. That is the market asks itself which companies are relatively unaffected no matter how events play out in Ukraine, and then buyers put money to work in those companies. (Read More: Cramer's Bristol-Myers theorem)
Day 4
On Day 4, after considerable declines in the market, Cramer says stocks often rally as shorts lock in profits and then cover their negative bets. The "Mad Money" host adds that since day four will be Thurs., March 6, he sees yet another reason for a rally. "It will be the eve of the jobs report and again I suspect shorts will cover."
Day 5
In our scenario, Day 5 is Fri., March 7. Both Ukraine and the jobs report will drive the market. Unless there's some major development, by day five markets begin to get comfortable with the new normal. And in a market starved for growth, Cramer thinks by Friday, high-growth stocks should again attract buyers.
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"That's pretty much the mayfly-like life cycle of all these types of selloffs," Cramer said. "It will be interesting to see if, over the next 5 days, the pattern again repeats itself."
Cramer added one caveat.
"If events lead to a nuclear war, and we all get killed, then you should rethink your moves," he said. Usually Cramer can make the case to buy Bristol-Myers in almost any market, but if we're all dead, "then I would expect the P/E to slip a bit," he said with a wink and a grin.
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