Apple shares have fallen nearly 8 percent in the last six months, but FBR Capital markets analyst Dan Ives said three upcoming catalysts in 2016 could send shares through the roof.
"We believe a trillion dollar market cap does get hit in 2016," Ives said Monday's night on CNBC's "Fast Money." If so, Apple would be the first corporation to reach that level.
On Tuesday, Ives reiterated his outperform rating and $175 price target. At midday Tuesday, Apple stock was down more than 2 percent, trading below $118 a share, after Credit Suisse lowered its iPhone estimates for 2016 to 222 million from 242 million.
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"The usual 'fire in a crowded theater' comments this morning from competitors are not a surprise to us as we saw the same knife fight develop going into the much contentious September quarter and Apple proved the skeptics wrong yet again," Ives said Tuesday morning. "We expect a very strong December quarter/holiday quarter on healthy iPhone 6s demand and legacy iPhone 6 shipments which will then see a natural tailoff in demand ahead of the blockbuster iPhone 7 release we expect to be unveiled in September 2016."
To reach that monstrous market cap, three things must happen in 2016, Ives said.
First, growth in China needs to remain "white hot."
According to Ives, China will represent a $100 billion market opportunity for Apple as demand in there continues to grow. He said that despite China's weak economy, demand within the country is large enough to make China Apple's largest geographic region by 2017.
Next, Streaming Apple TV will be announced in 2016.
"There's been a lot of noise about this in the last year and a half," he said. "We believe based on our analysis and sources that they are getting very close in terms of negotiations and inking deals either later this year or early next year on a streaming TV service with the programmers."
Ives estimates that Apple will need to price the service above the rumored $40/month due to content costs. The service would directly compete with Netflix and HBO Go as cable users cut the cord and depend on Internet streaming services for content.
Ives said streaming TV is central to Apple CEO Tim Cook's plans to integrate Apple Music and the existing Apple TV hardware together.
The last catalyst is Apple's car initiative, Project Titan.
"We believe Apple's gotten the green light to hire 2,000 employees in 2016," said Ives. "Now we think that there's a 60-70 percent chance that by 2020, you will have an autonomous Apple car."
Apple currently has 500 employees working on the project and he believes Apple plans to aggressively ramp on R&D. Ives said is Apple likely to poach employees from Tesla and the international auto industry.
Apple shares have risen nearly 7 percent this year. The company is currently valued at $655 billion.