The monthly NASDAQ chart is relatively complex with two different levels of technical analysis. Combined, these two approaches provide a better understanding of the context of NASDAQ activity with downside and upside targets.
The first analysis method uses the long-term pattern of an up-sloping trading channel. The main channel is defined by trend lines A and B. The channel start in April, 2009. The NASDAQ traded inside this channel until the breakout above trend line B in October, 2013.
Between October 2013 and February 2016 the NASDAQ traded in the channel between trend line B and the projected value of trend line C. Trend line B acted as a support level. The width of this channel was the same as the width of the long-term trading channel.
The fall below trend line B in February 2016 set the next trend line support level at the value of trend line A. This is currently near 4100.
This analysis suggests any rally is capped by the value of trend line B, currently near 4900.
The second analysis method uses the trading bands around 570 index points wide. These are horizontal support and resistance levels. The original support level near 1220 was tested and established between 2002 and 2009. The original resistance level near 1790 was established between 1198 and 2004. This was the first trading band.
The value of this trading band has been projected upwards to create a pattern of 7 equal-width trading bands. These have been remarkably accurate in defining breakout targets, and retracement support targets. The chart shows the last two of these trading bands.
The target 3 level of 5200 was achieved in July 2015. The retreat from this level used the 4620 level as a support level. The fall below this level has support near 4050. This creates a dual support level close the value of trend line A.
This analysis suggests a rally away from the support level near 4050 with a resistance target near 4620. A break above this level encounters resistance from trend line B.
This combination of resistance features from the two separate analysis methods makes it difficult for the NASDAQ to move above previous highs of 5200. However the pattern of features helps investors to establish the longer-term targets. It's important to note that despite the pullback, the NASDAQ remains in a long term bullish pattern on the monthly chart.
