I, along with a handful of others, have warned that the risks of recession have been rising of late, both abroad and at home, and that the Fed is likely to leave rates alone for some months to come.
I still believe that. True, we have maintained a solid pace of job growth. It is also true that some inflation measures have begun to move higher, approaching, or in a couple cases, even exceeding the Fed's 2 percent inflation target. Wages, too, are beginning to rise, but hardly at a rate that would induce a wage/price spiral.
Commodity prices have stabilized, albeit at depressed levels, and the dollar has backed off a Fed-induced high.
But many questions about the durability of the economic recovery remain. It is not clear to me that a cyclical bear market in stocks is over quite yet. We could see renewed turbulence in global equities if oil prices were to plunge, or if China's economic data, still weakening, were to fall entirely off a cliff.