This price rebound will bring desperate owners and producers of oil out of the woodwork to sell barrels and stay alive, financially. Not to mention, that the rosy demand growth estimates out there, also supportive of prices, of late, seem to discount the significant headwinds currently faced by the key demand growth region: Asia.
If the outages don't resolve rapidly, then oil prices will remain well-supported. But history has shown that industry is incredibly resilient and incredibly able to return to service, after all kinds of adverse episodes. The market could become well-oversupplied, again, causing prices to easily correct back to $35 per barrel. True clearing of the supply-demand balance is unlikely until 2017.
Commentary by John Kilduff, a partner at Again Capital, an investment-management firm that specializes in commodities. Follow him on Twitter @KilduffReport.
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