Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has pledged to impose a 45 percent tariff on imports from China if he were elected, but this may drive U.S. retail price of Chinese made goods up 10 percent, Capital Economics said in a report published on Thursday.
This is due to few alternative suppliers in key product classes that China sells to the U.S., limiting the impact on demand.
"After all, the choice for a U.S. consumer would not be between a more expensive Chinese product and a cheaper U.S. (or other non-China) made one. It would be between buying a more expensive Chinese product and not buying one at all," wrote economists Mark Williams, Julian Evans-Pritchard and Chang Liu.
Half of U.S. imports from China are electronics or machines with the largest individual categories being mobile phones, and tablets and laptops.
By value, China is the source of three quarters of mobile phones and 93 percent of tablets or laptops shipped into the US, the economists said.