McDonald's franchisees foresee modest sales gain in third quarter

A McDonald's restaurant in Brooklyn, New York.
Lucas Jackson | Reuters

It looks like McDonald's U.S. turnaround is still a ways off.

In a recent survey by Nomura, 30 domestic Golden Arches' franchisees, who own about 271 stores collectively, estimated that same-store sales had grown less than a half of a percent in the third quarter.

Here is how the franchisee's estimates break down by geographic zone for the third quarter:

Based on these results, Mark Kalinowski, a Nomura analyst, lowered his same-store sales estimate by 160 basis points to 0.2 percent. He noted that this is now the lowest forecast among analysts and 110 basis points below consensus.

Last quarter, McDonald's shares fell after same-stores sales growth in the U.S. fell short of estimates, raising doubts about whether its All Day Breakfast and McPick 2 promotions were having the desired effect.

Franchisees also estimated that same-store sales would decline about 0.8 percent in the fourth quarter, causing Kalinowski to lower his fourth-quarter forecast by 100 basis points, and estimate that McDonald's same-store sales will be down 2 percent.

Here is how franchisees estimates break down by geographic zone for the fourth quarter: