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The Fed may have just hinted that it's starting to doubt Trump's economic plan

The Federal Reserve's acknowledgement of slightly faster growth, slightly higher inflation and strengthening business and consumer sentiment are reassuring in these uncertain times. However, the Fed offered scant guidance on the future course of interest rates, nor the speed with which they may raise them.

Some market observers were anticipating a slightly more hawkish statement thanks to expectations of strong stimulus from the Trump administration and a GOP-controlled Congress.

But given the issues the new Administration has encountered in its first 11 days which included a confusing attempt to limit refugees coming into the U.S.; tough talk on trade; a war with the press and a rather split personality over which businesses it favors and which it doesn't, maybe, just maybe, the Fed is doubting that stimulus will be coming as swiftly and as forcefully as the markets and many observers, myself included, had anticipated.

Markets have had a muted response to the Fed's decision thus far. It would appear that, for a change, Wall Street needs more clarity from the fiscal side of Washington than the monetary side.

That is something relatively new. And, unlike some observers, I don't believe that means the Fed is any less important than it has been in the post-crisis world. Instead, it suggests the Fed has a new variable to consider when deciding on whether, how much, or how little, to move interest rates in the current environment.

Today's ADP jobs report, in advance of official numbers from the Labor Department on Friday, showed improvement on the employment front. Manufacturing data are also supporting a stronger growth case, both here and abroad.

The Fed should be on a path to raise rates between one and four times this year, again, assuming meaningful fiscal stimulus.

So, here we go again. Instead of focusing on deflation, global growth risks, a profits recession and diminished expectations, Fed policy may be trumped by Trump.

Until it becomes clear that the new president is more focused on tax reform, deregulation, infrastructure spending and other stimulus measures, instead of trade wars and anti-immigration acts, it may very well be that the Fed is back on hold … just when you thought it was safe to assume the Fed was ready to act.


Commentary by Ron Insana, a CNBC and MSNBC contributor and the author of four books on Wall Street. Follow him on Twitter @rinsana.

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