It's also very difficult, if not impossible, to imagine Senate Republicans rejecting Yellen for a second term. Doing so would infuriate the president and rock markets. If Yellen gets renominated she's likely to get confirmed quite easily.
Still, as one administration official told me on Tuesday, it remains highly unlikely that Trump sticks with the current Fed chair for one main reason: Former President Barack Obama, who nominated Yellen as the first female Fed chair in 2013.
If anything animates Trump's decision-making it's reversing anything Obama has done — from health care to immigration to economic policy. Yellen is likely to benefit from being the last candidate Trump speaks to about the Fed chair job. But it seems unlikely to many close to the process that she can win over Trump enough to overcome his instinct to dismantle the Obama legacy in every area he possibly can.
So put the odds of a Yellen renomination at somewhere around 25 percent, if not lower. That leaves Taylor, Fed Governor Jay Powell (a favorite of Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin), former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh and National Economic Council Director Gary Cohn on the short list. If there is a dark horse candidate, nobody knows who it is.
Both Taylor and Warsh had strong interviews with Trump, but sources say both Mnuchin and Trump are concerned about Warsh's age. At 47, he'd be one of the younger Fed chairs in history and Trump typically likes august, silver-haired types. That's partly why Taylor is rising in the betting line and Warsh is receding somewhat.
Speculation that Trump could go with Warsh as chair and Taylor or Powell as vice chair persist. It's not clear, however, that either would settle for the No. 2 slot — Warsh definitely would not.
No decision on the Fed chair job is expected to come down this week. Trump still needs to have his meeting with Yellen then sit down with senior staff and Mnuchin to make the final call. That could happen next week or slip toward the end of October or early November. But probably not later than that. The White House wants to get the decision out of the way and ensure that a hearing and confirmation vote can take place before Yellen's term ends in February.