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Tesla's biggest bull sees $60 billion in revenue by early next decade

  • There is Model 3 demand in excess of 500,000 units per year, says Nomura Instinet analyst Romit Shah.
  • Shah sees no competition on the horizon.

Tesla's most bullish analyst says the electric-car maker can bring in revenues of $60 billion by early next decade, and success is based in part on his confidence in demand for the Model 3.

While the California electric-car maker is unveiling ambitious new vehicle designs, some analysts are still wondering how well the company is likely to fare in its more immediate goal of reducing production bottlenecks and delivering the 400,000 or so Model 3 sedans customers have reserved.

But Nomura Instinet analyst Romit Shah has a $500 price target on Tesla, and said the Model 3 could add billions in just a few years.

"We think there is Model 3 demand in excess of 500,000 units per year, and they can get there by the end of the decade," Shah said on CNBC's "Power Lunch" on Friday. "And if they are, you are talking about $25 billion plus in revenue and billions of dollars of cash flow that will I think take care of some of these issues around funding, and capacity."

As for why Tesla loses money on every car it sells, Shah attributes it to the company being "subscale." And they could be profitable today, but they would be subscale for much longer.

Going from subscale to superscale, will take some time.

"There is no doubt that there is an operational piece that needs to get figured out," he said.

But Shah sees no competition on the horizon. Some other analysts would disagree, citing upcoming releases from luxury automakers and big investments from tech firms like Waymo. But Shah said Tesla has an extraordinary brand.

If the company can get to its aggressive production target of 5,000 units per week by March of 2018, volumes will scale and cash flows will follow, he said.

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