Last month, Colombia held its first presidential election since the government signed a historic 2016 peace agreement with guerrilla movement the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia. The poll was set to be a referendum on that deal, but it proved inconclusive, and the country is heading to a runoff.
The first round of elections ended with two leading candidates who will face off on June 17: Conservative Ivan Duque led with 39 percent of the vote in the first round, and leftist Gustavo Petro followed with 25 percent. Centrist Sergio Fajardo came in third place with 23.8 percent of the votes, and his supporters will now help decide the run-off outcome.
Petro, a former guerrilla himself, could find the vote difference with Duque too large to overcome, according to Paulo Gregoire, a Bogota-based analyst for geopolitical intelligence firm Stratfor.
"I think Petro will have a tough time because, to win the election, he would need over 90 percent of votes from Fajardo's supporters," Gregoire told CNBC over the phone.
In fact, Fajardo has already said he would not vote for either candidate.
Still, a poll by think tank the Latin American Strategic Center of Geopolitics held between May 29 and June 6 showed that Petro was now just 5.5 points behind Duque in the elections.