The best days of the dollar’s rally are behind it, currency expert says

The greenback has been red hot, but the rally's days are likely numbered.

The dollar index has soared around 8 percent since its February low, but I believe we've seen the top for 2018. A few factors are at play here, including the euro's recent trading pattern and the Federal Reserve's hiking path.

Eyeing the euro…

The euro is the most liquid, highly traded currency paired against the dollar, and last week traders turned the most bearish on the euro since last April; that was just before it rallied 17 percent. If we see this kind of behavior again, the dollar would come under pressure against a rising euro.

Last week's low in the euro, amid those fears, tested and held a trend line dating back to 2015, before bouncing more than 1 percent. We believe this is just the start.

…and the yuan, too

The yuan's devaluation has been another major factor in the dollar's ascent. China has been accused of weakening its currency to make its exports more attractive and thus combat tariffs.

We believe the U.S. and China will make significant headway on trade in the coming weeks, fueling a rally in the yuan and placing pressure on the dollar.

Fed watch

Finally, the Federal Reserve has already priced in two more hikes this year and three next year. This brings a proverbial ceiling to how much more hawkish it could become.

If global uncertainties clear up, we envision other major central banks will make larger strides down a hawkish path relative to what the Fed could do. This would weaken the dollar in a manner, similar to last May, under the same circumstances.

Back when the dollar peaked in the first week of 2017, on the heels of the 2016 U.S. presidential election, sentiment could not have gotten any more bullish. In hindsight, this start of a long-term downtrend, and this most recent bounce in the dollar presents an opportunity to sell.

Vote
Vote to see results
Total Votes:

Not a Scientific Survey. Results may not total 100% due to rounding.

Videos

Trades to Watch

Trader Bios

About

Trading Nation is a multimedia financial news program that shows investors and traders how to use the news of the day to their advantage. This is where experts from across the financial world – including macro strategists, technical analysts, stock-pickers, and traders who specialize in options, currencies, and fixed income – come together to find the best ways to capitalize on recent developments in the market. Trading Nation: Where headlines become opportunities.

Sara Eisen

Sara Eisen joined CNBC in December 2013 as a correspondent, focusing on the global consumer. She is co-anchor of the 10AM ET hour of CNBC's "Squawk on the Street" (M-F, 9AM-11AM ET), broadcast from Post 9 at the New York Stock Exchange.

In March 2018, Eisen was named co-anchor of CNBC's "Power Lunch" (M-F, 1PM-3PM ET), which broadcasts from CNBC Global Headquarters in Englewood Cliffs, N.J.

Read more

Connect