Forget September swoon, stocks will soar 5-10% by the end of the year, says Wall Street bull
Stocks just entered their weakest month of the year. September has traditionally been the worst month for the Dow and S&P 500 stretching to 1950.
Don't expect historical trends to stop the unstoppable bull markets this time, says Wall Street's biggest bull Tony Dwyer.
"Through the year-end, we're going to have somewhere between a 5 and 10 percent gain," Canaccord Genuity's chief market strategist told CNBC's "Trading Nation" on Tuesday.
A 5 to 10 percent gain from Tuesday's close takes the S&P 500 up to a range of 3,041 to 3,186, both which would mark records. Dwyer has a 3,200 price target on the S&P 500 for 2018, tops on Wall Street.
The stock market's moves this year have shored up Dwyer's confidence.
"It's the same leg higher that started off of the April retest of that February low," he said. "History showed that when you retest that kind of climactic drop, you ended up moving to new highs and that's exactly what we've done."
A major market sell-off earlier this year pulled the S&P 500 into a correction in February and April. Steady gains from those lows helped drive the index back up to record levels in August.
Stocks' upward march could last well beyond the end of the year as the U.S. economy continues its expansion, according to Dwyer's analysis.
"You don't have to worry about a recession for about two years, maybe more, and as we know, you've got to have direction of earnings to be positive to expect stocks to go higher and, of course, positive economy equals higher earnings," said Dwyer.
He says signs point to economic growth through the end of the decade at the least. The latest data point, the ISM manufacturing index, reached its highest point of the cycle on Tuesday and strongest since 2004. A peak in that index leads recession by 31 months, says Dwyer.
Other recession indicators, including a possible yield curve inversion and the National Federation of Independent Business's small business optimism index, suggest to Dwyer that a contraction in economic growth will not come for years.