Analysis suggests Hong Kong's market is set to decline

  • Hong Kong's Hang Seng is poised for a continuation of its downtrend.
  • The index's downside target is now near 25,200, Daryl Guppy writes.
Pedestrians walk past an electronic board showing the closing trade numbers of the Hang Seng Index in the Central district of Hong Kong on July 6, 2015.
Isaac Lawrence | AFP | Getty Images
Pedestrians walk past an electronic board showing the closing trade numbers of the Hang Seng Index in the Central district of Hong Kong on July 6, 2015.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index has broken two significant support features, suggesting a continuation of its downtrend —with a downside target near 25,200.

The Hang Seng has the appearance of a "head and shoulders" pattern, but that isn't valid. The right shoulder of the pattern is created by just two days of activity. The reversal is too small and too brief to be considered as a left shoulder development.

The first significant support feature to be broken is the historical support resistance level near 28,000. That is the upper edge of a trading band projection. The lower edge of the trading is the current downside target level.

The price fall below 28,000 was not a clear fall. There was consolidation around this level, and the potential for a rally rebound to develop. However, the fall below the second support feature has confirmed the downtrend.

The second support feature is the uptrend line that is projected from the anchor points in February, July and December of 2016. This is a long projection of the trend line, but it can at times provide a future support level.

The current move is a fall below the line, followed by a small rebound and retest of the line as a resistance level. The second retreat from the line confirms the continuation of the downtrend.

It is significant that the value of the trend line matches the value of the support level and that increases the significance of the fall below the two features.

The downside target is set using the width of the trading bands. The 25,200 level has acted as a strong resistance level in 2014, 2015 and in 2017. Traders will watch for consolidation to develop near the 25,200 level.

We use the ANTSSYS trading method to extract good returns from the potentially fast fall as the retreat develops. Traders will cover shorts near 25,200. A move above resistance near 28,000 shows consolidation near that level, but it is not a signal for a new rally uptrend.

Daryl Guppy is a trader and author of Trend Trading, The 36 Strategies of the Chinese for Financial Traders, which can be found at www.guppytraders.com. He is a regular guest on CNBC Asia Squawk Box. He is a speaker at trading conferences in China, Asia, Australia and Europe. He is a special consultant to AxiCorp.

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