An oil processing facility at Abqaiq and the nearby Khurais oil field was attacked on Saturday.Marketsread more
"There is reason to believe that we know the culprit," Trump said in a post on Twitter.Politicsread more
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An extended Saudi oil outage could push Brent crude prices north of $75 per barrel, Goldman Sachs warned clients.Marketsread more
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Consumers in the U.S. prefer Apple's more expensive models, while the standard iPhone 11 appears to be more attractive to buyers in China, according to Kuo.Technologyread more
The Times updated an article detailing a previously unreported accusation against Justice Kavanaugh from when he was a Yale University student, noting that "the female student...Politicsread more
The U.S. faces less oil-shortage risk after weekend strikes on Saudi facilities because America has been aggressively developing its own domestic resources in recent years,...Oilread more
Purdue's board approved the much-anticipated bankruptcy filing, days after reaching a tentative deal to settle some 2,000 opioid lawsuits.Health and Scienceread more
Everyone knows the Fed is virtually a lock to approve a quarter-point rate hike this week. Some traders, though, think the central bank could get even more aggressive.
The fed funds futures market, where traders make their bets about the direction of interest rates, is indicating a 92 percent chance that the policymaking Federal Open Market Committee will move its target rate range to 2 percent to 2.25 percent, or 25 basis points from the current level.
In recent days the market also has been entertaining the possibility of a more aggressive move — a 50 basis point hike, for which there is now an 8 percent chance. A week ago, such a move had only a 2 percent likelihood, and a month ago traders gave no chance to a half-percentage point move.
However, as Fed rhetoric has taken a hawkish bent and as the FOMC's meeting date has drawn closer, the market has rethought the direction of monetary policy.
While the chance of the committee actually approving a half-point hike is remote to say the least — there hasn't been an increase that large since May 2000 — the latest trading action is telling in terms of expectations. A market that had been pricing in a dovish Fed is now doing some adjusting.
"With the Fed seemingly all but on autopilot for a while, the bond market has some catching up to do as well," Goldman Sachs economist David Mericle said in a note. "Investors have found a range of reasons this year to price substantially fewer hikes than we and the median FOMC participant anticipate ... We have been skeptical of these arguments and see recent Fed commentary as broadly supportive of our take. Markets have moved in this direction, but there is further to go."
Indeed, the market has gravitated toward a more aggressive Fed.
Since the committee released minutes Aug. 22 from its most recent meeting, the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note has risen a quarter point to its highest level since mid-May. Traders are assigning an 84 percent chance to another rate hike in December.
However, 2019 remains an open question. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell will hold a news conference when this week's two-day meeting concludes Wednesday, so markets will be watching closely for any clues about the future.