Brazil election not a buying opportunity, instead wait to see what president does: Analyst

  • Because of Brazil's unpredictable nature, Andean Capital CEO Dan Osorio is waiting to see how the president-elect of Latin America's largest economy will lead beginning in January.
  • "As my Brazilian friends and colleagues tell me, Brazil is not for beginners, so predicting is far from easy," says Osorio.
  • Far-right candidate Jair Bolsonaro won with 55 percent of the vote in Brazil's presidential election on Sunday.

Because of Brazil's unpredictable nature, Andean Capital CEO Dan Osorio is waiting to see how the president-elect of Latin America's largest economy will lead beginning in January.

"As my Brazilian friends and colleagues tell me, Brazil is not for beginners, so predicting is far from easy," Osorio said on CNBC's "Power Lunch" on Monday. Osorio's company advises large asset-management firms on the economies, politics and markets of Latin America.

Far-right candidate Jair Bolsonaro won with 55 percent of the vote in Brazil's presidential election on Sunday. Brazilian shares initially jumped on the news, with the iShares MSCI Brazil ETF (EWZ), a U.S.-based exchange-traded fund that tracks Brazilian stocks, rising 2.2 percent. However, by 3:24 pm E.T., the fund erased those gains and was down about 3 percent.

The same went for Brazil's main stock index of Latin America's largest economy, the Bovespa index. It gained 1.4 percent on Monday morning but later turned negative.

Before the election, the Bovespa index was up more than 9 percent in October. And the EWZ was up more than 18 percent as well.

Osorio said it's difficult to tell why the market initially went up on the election results.

"It's hard to differentiate between does the market like him or does the market just feel relief that the PT [Brazilian Worker's Party] is not at the helm again," Osorio said.

The last two presidents, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva and Dilma Rousseff, were from the PT. The former is incarcerated and serving a 12-year sentence for money laundering and passive corruption while the latter was impeached and found guilty of breaking budgetary laws.

Osorio also has his eye on Bolsonaro's potential finance administrator Paulo Guedes, and in particular what they will do with Petrobras, Brazil's semi-public petroleum company.

"I think there are going to be inclinations to privatize more of it and then a very powerful union that's not going to want that," Osorio said.

As Bolsonaro rounds out his cabinet, Osorio said that may be a good indication of how the market in Brazil will do.

"If he fills his cabinet with retired generals, then be concerned, be afraid. If he doesn't, and he takes a somewhat more orthodox approach to the economy, then getting long Brazilian stocks and getting short Brazilian civility is the way this would work out," he said.

"I'm waiting to see what this man does and what foot he starts his administration on in January of next year," he said.

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