The most likely event that could jeopardize the president's approval numbers would be major negative economic news, said Kyle Kondik, the managing editor of Sabato's Crystal Ball, a nonpartisan political newsletter run by the University of Virginia's Center for Politics.
Outside of economic news, "the best prediction would be that his approval would not change much," Kondik said. He pointed to the high level of partisanship in the electorate, which has served as a stabilizing force for the president's job approval even as those close to the president have been sent to prison or otherwise come under scrutiny.
But Kondik warned of the perilous approach the president was taking by focusing on support among his core voters, as opposed to staking out a more conciliatory approach that might win over a greater share of the electorate.
"You might say that the president certainly could get re-elected at an approval rating just over 40, but you also have to remember that his approval is in the low 40s despite a relative period of peace and prosperity," Kondik said.
If that relative peace and prosperity continues, however, Trump may not have much to worry about.
On New Year's Day, the president tweeted, in all capital letters, a happy new year to "everyone, including the haters and the fake news media."
"Just calm down and enjoy the ride, great things are happening for our country," Trump wrote.
It could be a bumpy year for the Trump administration, as legal troubles and new investigations loom. But if Trump's approval rating remains where it is, the president may have good reason to enjoy the ride.