These companies benefiting from pandemic hoarding may keep their gains when it's over, Goldman says

Published Wed, May 27 202012:13 PM EDT

Jesse Pound @/in/jesse-pound @jesserpound

(This story is for CNBC Pro subscribers only. ) As economic restrictions are lifted around the country and people begin to resume their old habits, consumer goods companies that saw a surge in sales in March could be facing a pullback. In a new note, Goldman Sachs looked at household penetration data for different categories and companies — in other words, what percentage of households are buying a product — and found that most, but not all, jumps in sales are likely to be temporary blips. Many of those numbers are still down from 2019, in fact, suggesting longer-term trends that won't be easily reversed. "While 39 of 48 companies we analyzed have seen penetration trends improve since the start of the year, for many it has just been a moderation of losses. In fact, 27 of the 48 are still losing penetration YoY," the note said. Two product categories that Goldman is bullish on are are sanitation and hard seltzer. Hard seltzer's growth compared to prior years "suggests that this category could have a larger stickiness as new consumers come in," even as penetration of beer and wine are down relative to 2019. That could be good news for Boston Beer Company, which owns the Truly seltzer brand. Beer makes up a relatively small part of Boston's overall portfolio, so the longer-term trend away from the traditional drink won't be as big a hit to the company as it might be to Molson Coors , the note said. Beer sales have also seen a shift to more well-known brands, such as Boston's Samuel Adams, during the pandemic, which should moderate the decline in sales for larger companies, Goldman said. Shares of the company are up more than 30% so far this year. Procter & Gamble is also well-positioned to hold onto some of its gains, according to Goldman, as the trends started by the pandemic may have caused a more permanent shift for consumers. "The recent shift in consumption trends post COVID has caused PG's penetration declines (%YoY) to inflect to penetration gains," the note said, pointing to strength in laundry and household cleaning products for the company. Procter & Gamble shares are down more than 8% year-to-date. One area where the Goldman analysts do not expect the sales surge to stick is food products, where only a few categories including chili and canned meat have registered penetration gains. That could be a bad sign for General Mills . The company has seen home penetration rise by 1.6% sequentially during the stay-at-home period, but it hasn't been enough to offset long-term declines, the note said. "GIS has been losing penetration for the last few years and post COVID, its %YoY penetration declines have remained persistent," the note said. The company's stock appears to have benefited from the consumer trends during the crisis, rising more than 11% year-to-date.

A customer walks down an aisle displaying bottles of laundry detergent for sale at a Walmart store in Secaucus, New Jersey.

Timothy Fadek | Bloomberg | Getty Images

(This story is for CNBC Pro subscribers only.)

As economic restrictions are lifted around the country and people begin to resume their old habits, consumer goods companies that saw a surge in sales in March could be facing a pullback.

In a new note, Goldman Sachs looked at household penetration data for different categories and companies — in other words, what percentage of households are buying a product — and found that most, but not all, jumps in sales are likely to be temporary blips. Many of those numbers are still down from 2019, in fact, suggesting longer-term trends that won't be easily reversed.