Mike Santoli’s market notes: Market's multiple tests, Apple and Tesla charts, software backsliding

Published Thu, Sep 17 20201:50 PM EDTUpdated Thu, Sep 17 20202:21 PM EDT

(This story is for CNBC PRO subscribers only.) This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics. Testing, testing – one, two, three. The market undergoing several tests. S & P 500 testing last week's lows, Apple testing its 50-day average, tech in general testing pre-August-meltup levels and the overall tape being tested for its ability to withstand the corrections in mega-cap growth. So far the broad market is hanging in there, but tenuously. Similar pattern from the past couple weeks: The average stock holding up OK, economically sensitive groups showing strong relative performance, even as the big-cap indexes feel the pressure of selling by investors over-committed to the growth winners. S & P futures overnight bounced off last week's lows, also the 50-day average, also the level from Aug. 11, which is when I've dated the start of the late-summer overshoot (TSLA stock split announced, options-mania gets more intense). Seeking a base for a new sideways trading-range phase? AAPL goes back a bit further in time but also trying to find footing near a 10-week rally path. Meantime equal-weight S & P outperforming the regular S & P 500, and things like car makers, industrial machinery and transports green. 3M and Illinois Tool Works are up 2-4% this week, S & P Materials sector ahead by 2% with S & P 500 flat. Still suggests this churn is not mostly about economic stress. Still hard to say we've had a true downside flush with a welling-up of fear and "get-me-out-now" flight instinct. We don't always need to see that for a correction to run its course, but when we don't the rebound often isn't as strong or decisive. Investor surveys are off the super-bullish readings but not into pessimistic zone. CNN Fear/Greed Index neutral. The SNOW IPO in itself wasn't the crack that caused an avalanche, but reflects the massive implicit bet the market has made on cloud-related platform companies. Prior darlings SHOP , DOCU and others backsliding fast. There's partly a retreat from WFH plays but that was always mostly a cover story for paying super-high multiples for fast top-line growth in a growth-scarce world. Not much happening today is directly a reaction to the Fed, except in that the Fed yesterday did nothing but confirm the market's assumption about its intentions – meaning no incremental positive catalyst was offered. Broadly accommodative monetary policy and negative real interest rates for years are ultimately quite supportive for risk assets – even if the S & P front-loaded a lot of the benefits last month. Market breadth weak but better than indexes would suggest, about 2:1 decliners-to-advancers. VIX on the rise, simply accounting for the rough ride the past couple weeks and massive bid for October volatility protection ahead of the election. Treasuries have a bid largely on equity weakness, but yields firmly still in the five-week range. Credit slightly soft but not sending up any warning flares.

(This story is for CNBC PRO subscribers only.)

This is the daily notebook of Mike Santoli, CNBC's senior markets commentator, with ideas about trends, stocks and market statistics.

Testing, testing – one, two, three. The market undergoing several tests. S&P 500 testing last week's lows, Apple testing its 50-day average, tech in general testing pre-August-meltup levels and the overall tape being tested for its ability to withstand the corrections in mega-cap growth.
So far the broad market is hanging in there, but tenuously. Similar pattern from the past couple weeks: The average stock holding up OK, economically sensitive groups showing strong relative performance, even as the big-cap indexes feel the pressure of selling by investors over-committed to the growth winners.