Here's what every major analyst expects from Amazon's earnings report on Thursday

Published Thu, Oct 29 20209:41 AM EDT

(This story is for CNBC PRO subscribers only.) Wall Street analysts believe Amazon is poised to deliver another blow-out quarter when the e-commerce giant reports third-quarter earnings on Thursday after the bell. Shares are up 76% this year compared to the S & P 500 which is up just 5%. Consumers have flocked to the "stay-at-home" stock and analysts say the company will continue to benefit through the holiday season even as the econonmy re-opens and online sales grow. Amazon has also invested heavily in its shipping infrastructure and investors will be looking for signs the company is prepared to handle the expected demand. Other key catalysts to watch include Prime Member adds and revenue from digital advertising and the company's Amazon Web Services cloud business. Here's what analysts expect from Amazon's earnings report: "We expect another quarter of robust top-line growth as Amazon remains one of the top beneficiaries of pandemic-driven eCommerce tailwinds," Canaccord analyst Maria Ripps said. "Heightened demand persists" for Amazon, she added, even as the company held its highly-touted Prime Day later this year due to the pandemic. In fact, moving Prime Day from July to October may have actually helped the company more than believed according to Telsey analyst Joseph Feldman. "Our channel checks indicate Amazon saw strong demand for both essentials and discretionary products in 3Q20, despite the timing shift of Prime Day," he said. The sentiment was similar at investment firm RBC. "We think AMZN will likely raise the Street with its Q4 guide, as the company benefits from the shift of Prime Day from Q3 to Q4 this year, and our view that Q4 will reach record levels, given the pandemic," analyst Mark Mahaney said. JPMorgan analyst Doug Anmuth sees momentum being carried over into the holiday season following a a robust third quarter. "AMZN remains our TOP IDEA & we are positive on shares into earnings" he wrote. And Citi analyst Jason Bazinet tried to allay any shareholder concern that the online retailer has many other ways to drive growth than just buying and selling goods. ""We continue to like Amazon ahead of 3Q results, with the company expected to benefit from several growth engines: ecommerce, cloud and digital ads," the analyst said. But Bernstein analyst Mark Shmulik said the third quarter was likely an "investment period" and urged clients to "temper expectations on another EPS beat." Still the firm was sticking by the stock after upgrading it to outperform last month. "Investors should look through any quarter over quarter softness and variability, as secular trends in eCommerce, Cloud, and advertising remain compelling," he said. Citi- Buy rating "We continue to like Amazon ahead of 3Q results, with the company expected to benefit from several growth engines: ecommerce, cloud and digital ads. Investors will likely focus on 4Q revenue guidance over operating margin guidance. Citi's survey results show 60% of investors expect the high-end of 4Q revenue guidance to be at least $115 billion." Telsey- Outperform rating "We maintain our above consensus 3Q20 sales and profit estimates, and are raising our 4Q20 outlook to incorporate a strong Prime Day and anticipated robust online holiday season. Our channel checks indicate Amazon saw strong demand for both essentials and discretionary products in 3Q20, despite the timing shift of Prime Day. Evercore ISI- Outperform rating "Industry data and Prime day volumes point towards a strong 4Q guide. Adobe e-commerce data suggests that growth has decelerated from 55% in July to 43% in September which should support North America revenue growth of 35% in the 3Q. " RBC- Outperform rating "We think AMZN will likely raise the Street with its Q4 guide, as the company benefits from the shift of Prime Day from Q3 to Q4 this year (ex-India), and our view that Q4 will reach record levels, given the pandemic." Wedbush- Outperform "We expect Q3 results at or above the high-end of guidance, but near- and longterm profitability remains difficult to predict given ongoing COVID-19 related expenses and management's wide discretion when it comes to operating margin." Bernstein- Outperform rating We're looking at 3Q as an investment period, with AMZN building out the bulk of its stated +50% increase in fulfillment sq. ft. and stocking the shelves with inventory ahead of a robust shopping season. Given these investments we'd temper expectations on another big EPS beat. But with a holiday crunch expected, the scale and pace at which AMZN is bringing incremental capacity online is encouraging. Truist- Buy rating "Expecting strong 3Q20 results with consensus at the high-end of revenue guidance. We believe 3Q20 results will be strong, with consensus estimates for revenue at $92.56B, or +32% Y/Y (we're at $91.35B), and guidance of $87.0-$93.0B " Piper Sandler- Outperform rating "While we expect deceleration from 2Q, we foresee positive results for the quarter and a strong outlook for the holiday season. For AMZN, we see upside to 4Q numbers given the cadence of Prime Day, Holiday Dash, and existing robust demand. ... .We are positively inclined, but the stock reaction may be driven most by the 4Q guide." Credit Suisse- Outperform rating "We maintain our Outperform rating, with the thesis based on the following: 1) e-commerce segment operating margin expansion as it grows into its larger infrastructure, 2) optionality for faster-than-expected FCF growth vis-à-vis its advertising segment, and 3) upward bias to AWS revenue forecasts and likely more moderate deceleration path, as suggested by ongoing capital intensity in the business. DA Davidson- Buy rating "We look for comments from management on how holding Prime Day in 4Q instead of June/July will enable it to maximize the efficiency of its fulfillment center network and maximize its 4Q20 sales. Its inability to meet customer demand, in our view, has emboldened Target and Walmart as well as eBay, Etsy, Overstock, and Wayfair." MKM- Buy rating "We are raising 2H:20 and 2021 estimates, and believe the ongoing accelerating investments in operations and headcount will likely lead to accelerating growth in 2H:20. ... .Raising estimates as accelerating investments today should lead to accelerating growth tomorrow; We expect a 'beat and bracket' quarter despite rising expectations." Stifel- Buy rating "Amazon continues to invest in COVID-related initiatives (estimated $2B in the quarter) as well as ramp investment in fulfillment capacity to support stronger volume in the important holiday season. Amazon remains one of our favorite large cap growth names and is well-positioned to continue to benefit from the accelerated shift to eCommerce and transition to cloud services." Canaccord- Buy rating "We expect another quarter of robust top-line growth as Amazon remains one of the top beneficiaries of pandemic-driven eCommerce tailwinds. The company will likely provide an update on how its recent Prime Day event fared along with progress on getting fulfillment times back to pre-COVID levels. ... .Heightened demand persists as eCommerce continues to benefit from pandemic" Jefferies- Buy rating "We believe the pandemic resulted in permanent behavioral changes that has permanently boosted e-commerce consumption. Amazon is best positioned to benefit, particularly in grocery and essentials where the company historically under-indexed." JPMorgan- Overweight rating "AMZN remains our TOP IDEA & we are positive on shares into earnings, even with AMZN up 73% YTD. E-commerce growth continued at a near-record pace in 3Q, with non-store retail sales only decelerating ~150bps from +25.5% peak COVID-19 levels in 2Q per US DOC. " Barclays- Overweight rating "It's hard to dispute that Amazon is one of the biggest beneficiaries of increased e-commerce penetration in 2020, and we remain bullish on the long-term story. ... .Putting it all together, we think Amazon and its logistics partners are going to manage the holiday surge just fine. " Deutsche Bank- Buy rating "We remain bullish on Amazon and look for elevated growth to continue through the holiday season as retail foot traffic remains depressed, more fulfillment center capacity comes online, and the company benefits from significant owned last mile delivery capability with AMZN logitisics." Susquehanna- Positive rating "We continue to remain Positive on Amazon as we see the company as a long-term secular grower with leadership positions in three large growth markets — e-commerce, cloud, and advertising … and expect numbers to move higher over time. ... .We expect a strong overall 3Q." Bank of America- Buy rating "We see Amazon as well positioned for Holiday 2020 with the product mix more balanced (less consumables vs 2Q), enhanced logistics capacity, and 100k new fulfillment employees. ... .With virus cases increasing and many large cities and states pausing their reopening processes, we expect strong Online activity this holiday and reaffirm our Buy rating and PO of $3,560. Monness Crespi Hardt- Buy rating "In this new reality, we believe Amazon holds the key capabilities, vast global infrastructure and financial strength necessary to support the needs of people and organizations around the world, while also positioning Amazon as a beneficiary of accelerated digital transformation." Raymond James- Outperform rating "We maintain our positive view on Amazon shares given: 1) continued momentum in eCommerce sales with a near-term acceleration from COVID-19; 2) continued leadership and strong growth in cloud; 3) robust advertising growth; and 4) an improving margin profile driven by retail scale efficiencies, AWS, and advertising."

(This story is for CNBC PRO subscribers only.)

Wall Street analysts believe Amazon is poised to deliver another blow-out quarter when the e-commerce giant reports third-quarter earnings on Thursday after the bell.

Shares are up 76% this year compared to the S&P 500 which is up just 5%.

Consumers have flocked to the "stay-at-home" stock and analysts say the company will continue to benefit through the holiday season even as the econonmy re-opens and online sales grow.

Amazon has also invested heavily in its shipping infrastructure and investors will be looking for signs the company is prepared to handle the expected demand. Other key catalysts to watch include Prime Member adds and revenue from digital advertising and the company's Amazon Web Services cloud business.

Here's what analysts expect from Amazon's earnings report: