‘Buy online, pay in-store’ is here to stay, and Goldman says these retail stocks will benefit

Published Tue, Jun 15 20211:47 PM EDT

Customers are picking up their online orders at stores, a trend that could continue after the pandemic and that could propel certain retailers' stocks, according to a note from Goldman Sachs. The pandemic has forced major retailers to become more sophisticated with their inventory systems and logistics, allowing customers to skip long shipment and delivery times to complete their online orders in person using features like "buy online, pay in-store," curbside pick-up or third-party delivery services like DoorDash or Instacart. "Due to the greater flexibility on the customer's time, we are seeing continued demand strength for same-day services despite increasing mobility trends and improving store traffic," the analysts said in the report. "In response to this demand, we continue to see additional planned investments for these services by our coverage." Store fulfillment for digital sales increased to about 60% in the fourth quarter of 2020 from 43% in the first quarter of the same, according to Goldman Sachs. Even with the reopening of the economy, it's likely a hybrid model will persist for many retailers going forward, due to efficiency and capacity constraints, the bank said. Retailers don't necessarily need to have a footprint in more densely populated areas, but they are better positioned to capitalize on that footprint and the hybrid fulfillment trend, according to the report. Petco's digital fulfillment in-store rose from 20% in the first quarter of 2020 to 80% by the fourth, Goldman found. That momentum has continued this year: The company reported 83% of digital sales were fulfilled by stores in the first quarter of 2021. Target , which also has stores in high-density areas, grew its digital fulfillment in-store 5% from the first to the fourth quarter, to 85%, according to Goldman. That change is smaller than that of Petco and others, but the bank notes Target embraced the "buy online, pay in-store" and curbside pick-up model long before the pandemic and same-day services still grew faster than overall digital in the first quarter of this year. Goldman also highlighted Dick's Sporting Goods as a suburban play and Tractor Supply Company as a rural play. The use of "buy online, pay in-store" has also continued through the first quarter of this year for Dick's. Online orders make up a small portion of overall sales for Tractor Supply, but the company has an above-average store-fulfillment rate among customers embracing the hybrid transaction, Goldman found.

A customer carries a dog near a Petco Animal Supplies shopping bag outside a store in New York.

Angus Mordant | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Customers are picking up their online orders at stores, a trend that could continue after the pandemic and that could propel certain retailers' stocks, according to a note from Goldman Sachs.

The pandemic has forced major retailers to become more sophisticated with their inventory systems and logistics, allowing customers to skip long shipment and delivery times to complete their online orders in person using features like "buy online, pay in-store," curbside pick-up or third-party delivery services like DoorDash or Instacart.

"Due to the greater flexibility on the customer's time, we are seeing continued demand strength for same-day services despite increasing mobility trends and improving store traffic," the analysts said in the report. "In response to this demand, we continue to see additional planned investments for these services by our coverage."