BlackRock's CEO is concerned about inflation. But here's why he still sees stocks going higher

Published Wed, Jul 14 20219:02 AM EDTUpdated Wed, Jul 14 202111:46 AM EDT

Kevin Stankiewicz @in/kevin-stankiewicz-b5593466 @kevin_stank

BlackRock co-founder and CEO Larry Fink believes the long-term trend for the U.S. stock market remains strong, even after a robust rally over the past year since the coronavirus-driven plunge. "I'm not trying to suggest that it's going to be a straight-line upward and there could be disappointments going forward. But overall, with the amount of fiscal stimulus and monetary stimulus, and more importantly with the amount of cash that is looking to be put to work, I believe the trend line is still going to be upward," Fink said in an interview on CNBC's "Squawk Box" on Wednesday. Fink, who also serves as chairman of the world's largest asset manager, said it's possible the market's move higher is "maybe not as fast" as some would like to be in the second half of 2021. "Maybe it's going to be very moderate for the next six months as we digest how the world is able to handle the delta variant and the speed in which vaccinations occur throughout the world," Fink said, referring to the highly transmissible coronavirus strain that's concerning public-health officials. "And then two, what is going to be inflation out six months and a year?" Inflation and its impact on the economy and markets is a major topic at the moment, as U.S. economic activity picks up speed following pandemic-related slowdowns and disruptions. While Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell and other central bank officials have maintained their expectation that higher-than-normal inflation will be temporary and tied largely to Covid reopening, Fink has a different view. "I worry about inflation. I do not believe inflation is going to be transitory," Fink said. Instead, he said he thinks "it's going to be more systematic over time." He added, "How the Federal Reserve and how other central banks navigate that is going to be very important." Inflation in the U.S. largely came in below the central bank's target of 2% in the years following the 2008 financial crisis. It's been above that in recent data readings, including Tuesday's consumer price index report for the month of June . Shortly after Fink spoke to CNBC, June's producer price index came in above expectations, rising 1% month over month compared with estimates of a 0.6% gain. Year over year, headline PPI soared 7.3% and the core rate jumped 5.6%. Fink said his prediction for hotter inflation is rooted in reasons greater than just pandemic-related supply chain bottlenecks, although the latter factor is important right now. "I believe it's a fundamental, foundational change in how we navigate economic policy," he said. "I think post-World War II our economic policy was based on consumerism. We always believed that the cheapest products for Americans was the best way that more Americans can have more things. I would say in the last five years, we've navigated away from that foundational belief and now we're saying jobs are more important than consumerism," Fink said. There's been a greater emphasis on making supply chains less geographically concentrated, Fink said. That includes efforts to relocate manufacturing to the U.S. after decades off them moving offshore. "That is going to probably lead to systematically more inflation," Fink said. Fink, who has become one of Wall Street's loudest voices on taking action to fight climate change, also said the shift toward renewable energy away from fossil fuels is something to watch. "If we don't focus on the demand curve in our energy transition, but only focus on supply, we are going to see rising energy prices. I raise the question, what does that mean if we have $100 oil or $120 oil [per barrel.] That's going to be inflationary too," Fink said. Some on Wall Street have predicted oil rising to $100 per barrel during the current energy cycle. "I'm firmly believing that we are going to see wage increases and all that, so all this spells to me that we're going to have 3.5% inflation or more over the coming year," Fink added. Some, such as the famed Wharton School finance professor Jeremy Siegel, contended higher inflation is not a problem for the stock market . Siegel emphasized his view in a CNBC interview Tuesday, saying "I'm not selling my stocks" despite believing the Fed is wrong on inflation. The potential impact on the stock market remains to be seen, Fink said. "If we're able to pass on the prices and it doesn't change the margin, or we're able to create better productivity, which we've done over the past 20 odd years, then inflation is good for equities," Fink said. "If the inflation is going to be absorbed in the margins without productivity then we're going to see a flattening or declining margins. That is going to be the pivotal question related to equities." Fink's comments Wednesday came after BlackRock reported better-than-expected earnings and revenue for its 2021 second quarter. Assets under managements also grew 30% year over year to $9.5 trillion.

Laurence "Larry" Fink, chairman and chief executive officer of BlackRock.

Chris Goodney | Bloomberg | Getty Images

BlackRock co-founder and CEO Larry Fink believes the long-term trend for the U.S. stock market remains strong, even after a robust rally over the past year since the coronavirus-driven plunge.