How Apple's stock typically trades around its iPhone event

Published Tue, Sep 14 20219:01 AM EDTUpdated Tue, Sep 14 202112:50 PM EDT

Apple is set to hold its annual iPhone event Tuesday, and history shows the product announcement does not typically drive the tech stock significantly higher. The company is expected to introduce new iPhones and updates to its AirPods and Apple Watch, according to analysts . "Looking back, the iPhone launch event has not been a major stock catalyst," Morgan Stanley's Katy Huberty said in a note. CNBC Pro's looked at an analysis by Bernstein to see how Apple shares typically fare around the company's annual iPhone event. Take a look at Apple's relative performance to the S & P 500 before and after iPhone product announcements from 2007 to 2020, according to Bernstein's analysis: Apple shares on average outperform the market in the months and weeks leading up to the iPhone event. On the day of the announcement and one week after, Apple's stock typically fares 0.2% worse than the market. In the month and three months after the announcement, shares historically gain 0.3% more than the S & P 500. By six months after announcement, the stock on average returns 5.9% more than the market. That same trend is playing out again. Apple is up 14% more the past three months, while the S & P 500 has gained just 1% in that time period. "We remind investors that Apple's stock has traditionally outperformed in the 1-to-6 month leadup to Apple's annual iPhone product announcement, but has exhibited mixed performance in the immediate days preceding the event, as well as in the 1-to-6 months afterwards," Bernstein analyst Toni Sacconaghi said in a note. Results vary from year to year. For example, Apple's stock underperformed the market by 15% six months after the company's 2018 iPhone XS/R event, then outperformed the S & P 500 by 34% during the same time frame the year after with the iPhone 11 announcement, according to Bernstein. Shares of Apple closed slightly higher Monday ahead of the event. The stock is up 12.8% in 2021, compared with the S & P 500's 13.3% gain this year. —CNBC's Michael Bloom, Kif Leswing and Nate Rattner contributed to this report.

A shopper walks past an ad for Apple's iPhone 12 outside a store in Hong Kong on May 24, 2021.

Budrul Chukrut | SOPA Images | LightRocket | Getty Images

Apple is set to hold its annual iPhone event Tuesday, and history shows the product announcement does not typically drive the tech stock significantly higher.