Tesla first-quarter deliveries miss Wall Street expectations slightly. Here's what analysts think

Published Mon, Apr 4 202211:31 AM EDTUpdated Mon, Apr 4 20223:08 PM EDT

Tesla 's first-quarter electric vehicle deliveries in the first quarter slightly missed consensus Wall Street expectations, but analysts continue to be optimistic about the EV maker's strength in navigating industrywide supply chain challenges. The company delivered 310,048 electric vehicles in the first quarter, Tesla reported Saturday. Analysts expected 317,000 vehicles delivered in the first three months of 2022, according to FactSet estimates as of March 31. Over the same period last year, Tesla delivered 184,800 electric vehicles. Deliveries are the closest approximation to sales numbers reported by Tesla. The auto industry has battled parts shortages, inflation and labor challenges stemming from the Covid pandemic. The war in Ukraine has further raised concerns about the supply of key commodities and other logistical disruptions. With these headwinds in mind, many analysts were impressed by the record delivery numbers Tesla posted, despite coming in a bit lower than the consensus estimate. Investors appeared pleased as well, with Tesla shares up more than 3% midday Monday. Most analysts attributed the slight miss to Covid shutdowns in Shanghai. Tesla's factory in Shanghai was closed for the last week of the quarter due to pandemic lockdowns. "We believe deliveries had been tracking to meet our forecast until Giga Shanghai was closed for the last week of the quarter due to COVID controls," Goldman Sachs' Mark Delaney said in a note Sunday. Goldman has a buy rating on the stock and a $1,200 price target, implying 10.6% upside from Friday's close. Deutsche Bank said the first-quarter figures are "a solid start to 2022" and put the company on track to meet the firm's projection of 1.49 million units delivered this year. The firm reiterated its buy rating and $1,200 price target on Tesla. "We remain impressed with Tesla's operational execution in the face of large industry supply-chain challenges, and with its pricing power which could enable it to more than offset steep raw materials pressure," Deutsche Bank analyst Emmanuel Rosner said in a Monday note. Some analysts noted Tesla's resilience in navigating the supply issues and leading position in the EV space. "In combination with highest vertical integration in the most critical supply chain areas (semiconductors, batteries & raw mats), Tesla's global EV leadership will not be threatened even by the most aggressive competitors, we believe," UBS' Patrick Hummel said in a Monday note. Though UBS has a neutral rating on Tesla, Hummel raised his 2022 to 2024 estimates and hiked its price target on the stock to $1,100 from $1,000. The new projection is about 1.4% higher than Friday's close. Analysts also see a persistent, favorable supply-demand environment for Tesla. "We note deliveries continue to outpace production pointing to very strong demand, especially when considering the significant price increases TSLA has taken," Oppenheimer's Colin Rusch said in a note Sunday. Rusch reiterated his overweight rating and $1,103 price target on Tesla. However, Cowen warned that Covid disruptions in China could bleed into Tesla's second-quarter results. "China's shutdown of Shenzhen and Shanghai in recent days may plague output in 2Q," Cowen's Jeffrey Osborne said in a note Monday. Cowen has a market perform rating on Tesla, but raised its price target on the stock to $790 from $660, implying 27.2% downside. Nineteen of 34 analysts covering Tesla have a buy or overweight rating on the stock, according to FactSet. The consensus price target is now $974.64, 10.1% lower than Friday's close. Shares are up 2.6% in 2022 through Friday's close after a more than 29% rally in the past month, outperforming the S & P 500's 4.6% decline this year. Tesla is set to report first-quarter financial results on April 20. The company recently hosted a ribbon-cutting ceremony for its new factory in Germany. Tesla is also set to kick off another new assembly plant in Texas with a grand opening this Thursday. — CNBC's Michael Bloom and Lora Kolodny contributed to this report.

Aerial view of the Tesla Shanghai Gigafactory on Mar. 29, 2021 in Shanghai, China.

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