Goldman says these two tech stocks have the most to lose in a deep recession

Published Wed, Jul 6 202211:10 AM EDT

These two household tech names could get hit the most in the event of a deep recession, according to Goldman Sachs. Shares of Apple and Hewlett Packard Enterprise are both at greatest risk in a bear case scenario, according to a Tuesday note from the investment bank. Goldman Sachs, which is currently forecasting a mild slowdown, expects weakening consumer sentiment and enterprise spending will continue to knock down the value of the two tech stocks — even with both down nearly 20% this year. "We would point out that our consumer electronics coverage generally has the most downside risk to fundamentals should a worse downturn in demand, vs. our base case, materialize but our datapoints as of this writing are still consistent with a shallow slowdown similar to our economists' current forecasts," read the note. A major downturn for Apple could mean downside of 22% and 33% to its 2023 revenue and earnings estimates compared with consensus estimates, the note read. Goldman Sachs assumed a 15% cut to 2023 revenue in its bear case. The firm, which has a neutral rating on Apple, also reduced its 12-month price target to $130 from $157. Apple shares were recently up less than 1% at around $142. "We decrease our revenue forecasts in all segments expect Mac which we believe is likely to see continued healthy demand and market share gain," the note read. Meanwhile, a bear case scenario for Hewlett Packard could mean 38% downside compared with consensus estimates, according to the note. Goldman Sachs assumed a 12% cut to 2023 revenues in its bear case scenario. Hewlett Packard stock was down about 1.5% in trading Wednesday, putting it at around $12.63. A slowdown would hit the two companies as consumer sentiment slumps and more people shift to services from goods in a post-pandemic recovery, according to the note. Goldman Sachs expects that high-end consumers, who have been resilient thus far, will also get hit as the year wears on. Meanwhile, the firm noted that spending is shifting to away-from-home categories, such as beauty and luggage, at retailers such as Target . "We believe that even if high-end consumer sentiment in the US remains relatively stronger for longer than expected, this shift in wallet share would still mean a downturn for our consumer exposed names," the note read. Already, forecasts for PC and smartphone sales are coming down, the note said. Goldman Sachs expects PC units to fall by 24% year over year in 2023 in its bear case, and by 10% in 2023 in its base case. Meanwhile, smartphone shipments are expected to fall by 8% year over year in 2023 in a deep recession scenario, and grow by 4% in its base case. The investment bank is deliberating the impact a deep recession will have on stocks as Wall Street continues to debate the timing and scale of a slowdown. On Tuesday, the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury fell below the 2-year yield , an inversion that many investors take as a warning sign that the economy may tip into a recession.