Truist initiates coverage of Tesla with a buy rating and $1,000 price target

Published Wed, Jul 13 20227:08 PM EDT

Tesla has another bull in its corner. Truist Securities on Wednesday initiated coverage of the electric vehicle maker with a buy rating and price target of $1,000. That represents a more than 40% upside from where shares closed at $711.12 during Wednesday's session. "We believe the company's best days, in terms of volume production, product innovation, and, especially AI innovations, are still down the road," wrote analyst William Stein in the July 13 note. Truist expects Tesla to continue to outperform expectations in vehicle deliveries in the coming years and reach 10 million units per year by 2030, according to the note. "Our view is based on our expectation for robust growth to continue as TSLA's culture has encouraged three sustainable growth drivers: vertical integration and rapid innovation, consistent introduction of new platforms, and a growing number of more capable & efficient factories," said Stein. The firm sees significant upside in Tesla's AI innovations, which could turbocharge growth opportunities going forward, according to the note. These include advanced driver assistance systems, autonomous driving, AI computing services and AI robotics. "We estimate these high-growth, high-profit margin potential AI innovations are responsible for 43% of the equity's value," Stein said. Truist sees Tesla's profitability taking a step back in the second quarter of 2022 due to rising input costs and lower volumes from the shutdown of its Shanghai factory, as well as increased factory costs in Shanghai and Texas and bitcoin deflation. Still, the firm expects Tesla to rebound and reach peak profitability in the fourth quarter of 2023. The company may be able to reach that goal sooner, in the third quarter of 2022, given a 26% contribution margin, according to the note. Of course, there are risks to the firm's base case, including shifting consumer spending on luxury and electric vehicles, the potential for further Covid-related shutdowns, supply costs and constraints and increased competition. Truist is also considering catalysts such as upcoming delivery and quarterly results, daily tweets from CEO Elon Musk, the company's upcoming AI day on Sept. 30 and more.