Veteran strategist says the stock market rally is probably 75% over

Published Thu, Aug 18 20227:25 PM EDTUpdated Fri, Aug 19 20227:07 AM EDT

Veteran strategist David Roche believes the end is in sight for the stock market rally. Roche, head of research firm Independent Strategy, told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" on Wednesday that he thought the rally was "probably 75% over now." His comments came as the Dow Jones Industrial Average snapped its five-day winning streak Wednesday, although all three major averages closed marginally higher on Thursday. Last week saw the S & P 500 log its fourth consecutive weeks of gains — it is up around 16% from its June lows, but remains down around 10% since the start of the year. Roche said the rally over recent weeks "shows you that we have not tipped straight into a recession due to job disruption and the erosion of household purchasing power." While recession risks in Europe persist due to the Russia-Ukraine war, and in China as a result of structural issues, Roche said there had been a shift in sentiment toward the U.S. and the possibility of an extreme recession globally. "Three weeks ago … consumer price inflation was going to erode household spending, there wasn't enough wealth, there wasn't enough excess savings put aside during the Covid period and we were all doomed," he said. "Now, I would say it's pretty clear that household wealth and the creation of jobs , even if not as strong as before, are — together with rising wages, albeit not in real terms — seemingly combining to keep the [U.S.] economy away from recession. Probably at 1% growth rates, but away from recession." Central banks U.S. consumer prices rose 8.5% in July , a slower year-on-year rate than the previous month. By a traditional technical definition, the U.S. economy is already in a recession after recording two consecutive quarters of negative growth. However, a recession has not officially been declared by the National Bureau of Economic Research. Roche said he thinks the economy may grow slowly enough that oil, energy and food prices will tip down, producing enough disinflation for central banks to pause. Markets have been considering the prospect that central banks will not continue with rate hikes as aggressively, he said, with the Federal Reserve probably pausing at a range of 3.5%-3.75%, and the European Central Bank likely stopping rate rises by the end of the year. In July, the Fed enacted its second consecutive 0.75 percentage point interest rate increase taking the benchmark overnight borrowing rate up to a range of 2.25%-2.5%. The European Central Bank , meanwhile, increased interest rates for the first time in 11 years , pushing its benchmark rate up by 50 basis points to zero.