Goldman upgrades Estee Lauder, says investors are underappreciating path to 'robust' sales growth

Published Wed, Sep 21 20226:42 AM EDTUpdated Wed, Sep 21 20228:54 AM EDT

It's time to load up on Estee Lauder shares, according to Goldman Sachs. Analyst Jason English upgraded the cosmetic company to buy from neutral, saying it is a stronger company emerging from the pandemic with a "pathway for robust sales growth acceleration." The analyst also hiked his price target on the stock to $303 per share from $298. The new target implies upside of 26% from Tuesday's close of $239.50. Estee Lauder shares rose more than 1% in the premarket. English said Estee Lauder shares have been depressed by concern over China's zero-Covid policy. The stock is down more than 35% in 2022. However, "This uncertainty is around a dynamic that we believe will prove transitory," he said. "History has taught us that stock price weakness related to transitory events are typically buying opportunities, especially when they overshadow an otherwise improving outlook." Going forward, Goldman thinks there are several drivers that can boost the cosmetics stock, including growth in its skin-care and fragrance segments. The make-up sector is one where English sees continued room for growth coming out of the pandemic, which essentially crushed this area of the business as people turned away from products typically associated with socializing. English also sees a rebound in China sales, noting that sales in the country can sustain 15% growth beyond 2023. "While we see near-term challenges in Hainan owing to China's zero-covid policy and uncertainty around potential lockdowns, we believe it will prove transitory as there are several structural factors in play which can drive sustained Hainan growth going forward even when international travel resumes," English said. The cosmetic industry, with competitors such as Ulta and Sephora, has felt the pandemic at different intensities. Consumers turned away from items such as makeup and fragrances with less need to be in public, but interest grew in sectors such as skin care that tailored to a stay-at-home, self-improvement lifestyle. — CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed to this report.