Goldman Sachs raises crude price forecast after ‘OPEC+ takes on the West’

Published Thu, Oct 6 20222:52 AM EDTUpdated Thu, Oct 6 20225:30 AM EDT

Goldman Sachs now expects oil prices to hit $110 per barrel by the end of this year, stressing that "price risks are skewed potentially even higher." The investment bank has raised its price forecasts by $10 a barrel and sees Brent crude ending 2022 at $110 a barrel, rising to $115 a barrel in the first quarter of 2023. The Wall Street bank made the call after OPEC+, a group of some of the world's most powerful oil producers, decided Wednesday to reduce production by 2 million barrels per day from November to bolster prices. Both Brent crude futures and U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures rose following the decision. Early Thursday, international benchmark Brent was trading around $93.50 a barrel — around 17% below Goldman's call. WTI was trading around $87.60 a barrel. 'Unsustainably bullish' In a note titled "OPEC+ takes on the West (very bullish)" to clients, Goldman's analysts cautioned that the cuts would likely be in place over the short term as oil reserves and spare capacity remain very low worldwide. According to the bank's analysts, it would be "unsustainable" for OPEC+ to maintain the cuts until the end of next year as oil inventories would fully deplete, prompting prices to soar and hit demand. "This outcome is likely unsustainably bullish in our view. As such, we would expect the cuts to have to be temporary before some form of political detente allows quotas to move back significantly higher," the analysts wrote. "To that end, OPEC+ have said the quotas will stand for at least November and December before the return of their biannual meetings that month." OPEC+ 'adds pressure' on the United States Oil prices had fallen to roughly $80 a barrel from more than $120 in early June amid growing fears about the prospect of a global economic recession. OPEC+'s production cut for November is an attempt to reverse this slide, despite repeated pressure from U.S. President Joe Biden 's administration to pump more to lower fuel prices. It comes ahead of the midterm elections in the U.S. next month. Dan Yergin, vice chair of S & P Global, said Washington sees the cuts by OPEC+ as political interference and a "blow" against President Biden. Crude prices have been rising this week after new data showed a fall in U.S. commercial crude stocks. Coupled with the cuts OPEC+ announced, this "adds pressure" on the United States to increase releases from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, according to Capital Economics. The consultancy, which is predicting prices will rise to $100 a barrel for Brent by the end of the year, said OPEC+'s cuts will only lead to a physical loss of 1 million barrels per day to global supply. Caroline Bain, chief commodities economist at Capital Economics, said OPEC+ countries were already producing significantly below their previously announced quota, so "the decline in physical supply will be much less, though still significant." "We will assess the impact of OPEC's cut to supply on our market balance estimates, but it seems likely that it will just deepen the small deficit we forecast in the fourth quarter," she added.