Evercore ISI's Mark Mahaney says tech earnings won't be as bad as feared, and names his top three mega-cap picks

Published Wed, Oct 12 20221:31 PM EDTUpdated Wed, Oct 12 20222:45 PM EDT

Evercore ISI's Mark Mahaney said he expects tech earnings during the third-quarter reporting season will not be as bad as feared, and has three top stock picks for investors. The tech analyst named Meta, Amazon and Netflix as his top three picks, saying the beleaguered Internet stocks look attractive after the companies undertook cost-cutting measures last quarter, according to a Tuesday note from Evercore. "We're likely to have more negative revisions on estimates than positive this quarter. We've had very high skew towards negative the last three quarters," Mahaney said during a Thursday appearance on CNBC's "Tech Check." "I just don't think the skew will be as negative because the companies, starting about three months ago, started taking cost measures," Mahaney continued. Mahaney reiterated Facebook-parent Meta as his No. 1 pick, citing evidence of rising user engagement at the social media company. That would be a "dramatic positive" for the stock, which is down 62% this year. Amazon, which is the analyst's No. 2 mega-cap tech pick, is starting to improve margins and accelerate revenue growth, which Mahaney said could indicate that the stock could rerate higher, or achieve a higher P/E multiple. The analyst also applauded Amazon's use of Prime Day to sell excess inventory from other businesses. "We believe Q2 was likely the trough quarter in terms of revenue growth and operating margins, so with growth acceleration and margin expansion should come multiple recovery," Mahaney wrote in the Tuesday note. Lastly, Netflix, which supplanted Uber for the No. 3 spot, has a positive catalyst on the horizon with the anticipated launch of its ad-supported tier, according to the analyst. Shares are down 63% this year. "We believe NFLX's ad-supported and password-sharing revenue opportunities constitute Growth Curve Initiatives (GCIs) – catalysts that can drive a material reacceleration in revenue growth. Further, we believe these pending catalysts de-risk Q3 EPS results," he wrote.