Goldman says this restaurant chain is one of the most compelling growth stocks into earnings

Published Tue, Oct 18 202210:10 AM EDT

Investors should load up on Chipotle Mexican Grill shares ahead of the restaurant chain's next quarterly report, according to Goldman Sachs. Analyst Jared Garber reiterated his buy rating on the stock, noting that while the company was poised for a quarter of negative traffic, it still has strong pricing power. The analyst did lower his price target on the Chipotle to $1,840 from $1,845, but the new estimate still implies upside of about 20% going forward. "We continue to view CMG as one of the most compelling growth stocks in the industry given the strong top-line (unit growth and SSS) and leading margin profile," he said in a note to clients Monday. Chipotle is set to report third-quarter earnings Oct. 25. Goldman Sachs found Chipotle's chicken burrito is about 12% cheaper than competitor Qdoba and 25% cheaper than "healthy" alternatives that include chicken at Sweetgreen or Cava. It is also 5% and 30% cheaper than a burger-and-fry meal at fast food and fast casual restaurants, respectively. Consumers see the value proposition, he said, as the chain scored 6% higher in a value screen compared to fast casual competitors. The company's bottom line could also be helped by easing food costs, he said. Goldman Sachs isn't the only firm optimistic about Chipotle. Last week, Bernstein initiated coverage at the outperform level and said the stock had an upside of about 35%, citing the younger, higher-income consumer base and cost-cutting measures that will help the bottom line. To be sure, he said Chipotle's business model presents some risks. Price increases could lead to sliding demand given its view as a fast-casual restaurant with a relatively lower price point. The company is also known for having few options but consistent quality, though consumers may get fatigued with a lack of innovation. Goldman Sachs found its most recent addition to protein offerings, the garlic guajillo steak, generated less social buzz than previous limited-time offerings. While sentiment was net positive online, the steak received the highest proportion of negative comments among limited-time menu additions studied. The stock is down about 11.8% this year, outperforming the S & P 500 — which is down about 20% in that time. Goldman's Garber said the stock is up 15% since second-quarter earnings, beating the average of 4% among fast food and fast casual restaurants the firm covers. — CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed to this report.