Bank of America double upgrades Netflix to buy, says ad subscriber tier can drive 23% upside

Published Tue, Nov 15 20226:30 AM ESTUpdated Tue, Nov 15 20227:08 AM EST

Netflix's monetization efforts make it an attractive stock despite slowing subscriber growth, Bank of America said Tuesday. Analyst Jessica Reif Ehrlich took over coverage of the stock and double upgraded it to buy from underperform. Ehrlich also has a price target of $370 on Netflix, implying upside of 23.6% from Monday's close. "In our view, the company's global scale, strong brand, and superior user experience position it to remain a leader as this transition continues to transpire globally," she said in a note to clients. "Despite slower sub growth, we believe efforts to improve monetization via a value-oriented ad tier and significant conversion of password sharers has the potential to drive operating/financial upside." Ehrlich said Netflix is "still the streaming leader," but now with more diversified revenue streams. The company could see $719 million from advertising within its basic platform by 2025. An expansion to standard and premium tiers could bring $627 million, though this possibility is not included in the current Bank of America forecast. Netflix launched an ad-supported subscriber plan earlier in November for $6.99 per month. The tier includes 4 to 5 minutes of ads per hour of streaming, with no ability to download content. Some content has been excluded from the ad tiers due to licensing troubles. Meanwhile, some on the production side have taken issue with the move because they say ads in the middle of their content disrupts the story. The streaming giant, which is using Microsoft for its ad needs, turned to the tier after years of rejecting the idea as a way to mitigate declines in subscriber growth. Netflix added 2.5% in pre-market trading Tuesday. The stock has dropped 50.3% compared with the start of 2022 as the technology sector has been hit hard and investors have rotated out of growth. Short-term challenges such as a glut of inventory, increased competitions and a worsening broader economy could hurt the stock in the short term. But Ehrlich said Netflix's ability to drive engagement, "extraordinary" advertiser demand and likelihood of getting premium rates for its ad space will likely help the stock. Meanwhile, Ehrlich said the company's crack down on password sharing will also help increase the total addressable market. Netflix estimates it loses 100 million potential subscribers to password sharing, but Ehrlich said its brand is uniquely positioned to convert to subscribers, especially considering the new ad tier that is cheaper. She sees a potential upside in 2023 or 2024 that could bring in more than $1.2 billion around the world, though forecasts do not account for incremental revenue or subscribers from password sharing changes. — CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed to this report.