Oppenheimer downgrades Carvana as risks mount for the used car platform

Published Tue, Nov 15 20227:43 AM EST

Oppenheimer has grown increasingly concerned about Carvana 's near-term prospects despite seeing clear long-term potential. Analyst Brian Nagel downgraded the used car platform to perform from outperform. It also removed a price target of $100, which would have implied an upside of 926.7% from where the battered stock closed Monday. Carvana has lost 95.8% since the start of 2022. "We remain optimistic about longer-term prospects for CVNA and the company's shares," Nagel said in a note to clients. "That said, significant nearer-term operational and financial risks for Carvana have emerged and are likely to cloud the CVNA investment story for the foreseeable future." Nagel expects an adjusted EBITDA loss of $998 million in 2022, which is a greater drop than the prior forecast of a $912 million loss. He also lowered 2024 and 2025 adjusted EBITDA estimates to a loss of $303 million and a gain of $70 million, respectively, on the back of conservative sales. The used car platform's third-quarter earnings showed EBITDA came in below expectations. Used car sales down were down 8% as consumers moved away from big-ticket goods as inflation pinched pocket books. Still, Nagel noted these are short-term challenges. A more challenging 2023 should give way to growth of over 20% in 2025 in the base case. He said the stock should be helped by a moderation of used car prices that should in turn aid consumer demand and sentiment among core buyers. Gross profit per unit should exceed $4,000 in 2024 and 2025. Ultimately, Nagel said the company still represents an innovative omni-channel disruptor, but it is moving within a "fragmented and inefficient" market focused on pre-owned vehicles that can be hard to perform well within. Investors watch the stock because of its jaw-dropping 2022 plummet and to see if there's potential to buy in before a rebound. "We remain optimistic that a further moderation in prices of pre-owned vehicles should serve to unlock building pentup demand, over time," he said. He said investors looking for a shorter-term play in the industry should consider CarMax , which is rated outperform. The competitor is down 43.2% this year. — CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed to this report.