Goldman Sachs says insurance stock Lincoln National is a buy that can jump almost 35%

Published Wed, Nov 16 20229:46 AM EST

Shares of life insurance company Lincoln National are a buying opportunity that can jump more than 30% from Tuesday's close, according to Goldman Sachs. Analyst Alex Scott upgraded shares of Lincoln National to buy from neutral, saying the company will be able to bounce back from an outsized charge that recently shook investor confidence in the stock . "[We] upgrade LNC to a Buy rating (from Neutral) driven by our view that the company should be able to rebuild its capital base and display its relatively strong underlying capital generation faster than investors are expecting," Scott wrote in a note Wednesday. Lincoln National disclosed a $2 billion charge related to its secondary guarantee universal life insurance (SGUL), and a $550 million cash impact, which meaningfully reduced the RBC ratio, according to the note. An RBC ratio represents the risk-based capital ratio that an insurer needs to maintain to protect the company against insolvency. Still, the analyst expects that Lincoln will recover from here. "Our projected base case for statutory capital generation and cash flow in Exhibit 3 suggests to us that the company should be able to get the RBC ratio back above the 400% targeted minimum level by around mid-2023 putting the company in a position to return to more robust cash flow levels in 2024. We think this time line is achievable when considering the actions LNC is making to deploy less capital to new business growth in 2023," Scott wrote. The analyst identified Lincoln National as a buying opportunity after reviewing the life insurance sector, which had a difficult quarter as a group because of volatility from actuarial reviews and RBC updates. However, Scott said that shares of Lincoln National offer "significant upside" after falling nearly 50% this year, "particularly if the company engages in reinsurance to free up capital." His $46 price target, down from $50, represents roughly 35% upside from Tuesday's closing price of $34.16. The stock was up as much as 3.4% in early trading Wednesday. "As a result we are upgrading our rating on LNC to a Buy rating (was Neutral) as we see strong near to medium term upside," read the note. —CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed to this report.