Oil prices fall as outlook grows bearish. Traders fear weak China demand more than impact of Russian sanctions

Published Mon, Nov 21 20222:09 PM ESTUpdated Tue, Nov 22 202211:23 AM EST

Patti Domm @in/patti-domm-9224884/@pattidomm

Oil prices were volatile Monday as traders considered the possibility of weakening Chinese demand and a growing view the world could have sufficient supplies even with a European ban on Russian oil. After a wild session, West Texas Intermediate crude futures closed down 0.42% at $79.74 per barrel after paring losses, while Brent crude was off 0.39% at $87.28 per barrel. RBOB gasoline futures reversed losses and rose 0.7%. The move in oil also whipsawed energy equities, and the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund remained under pressure but also regained ground. Analysts have become more bearish on oil prices, and Goldman Sachs, one of the more bullish, cut its forecast to $100 for Brent in the fourth quarter, down from $110. The firm cited China's Covid-19 restrictions and a lack of clarity on G-7 price caps on Russian crude for the new outlook. Earlier, oil prices were down by more than 5% after The Wall Street Journal reported that Saudi Arabia and other OPEC producers were considering adding 500,000 barrels per day of production. But Saudi Arabia's energy minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, denied the report and said OPEC+ would stick to its production cut of 2 million barrels a day through 2023 and could potentially increase it. OPEC+ includes members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, as well as Russia and other producers. "There's obviously a lot of political noise heading into the sanctions. Everyone is trying to figure out how much is being taken out in terms of Russia," said Amarpreet Singh, Barclays energy analyst. He said the price should remain volatile, and he expects Brent to average about $93 per barrel for the fourth quarter. The European Union's ban on seaborne Russian oil starts Dec. 5. G-7 countries also plan a price cap on Russian crude that's designed to force it off the market. Oil analysts have expected volatility around that new restriction, but the concerns about demand have outweighed worries about supply for now. "It is still unclear how the price cap is going to fully work. Bottom line is to make Russia get below-market pricing for its oil," said John Kilduff, partner with Again Captial. He expects trading to stay volatile, as the details are rolled out. Russia has said it will not sell oil to nations that impose a price cap. "The market is very nervous about it," said Kilduff. He said the Russian ban could make for a potential "supply cliff," meaning a sudden shortfall. But he still expects sufficient supply, at least through the winter. "I think there's going to be a lot more oil on the market than people are calculating. There's going to be all types of off-ramps, subterfuges and exemptions," said Kilduff. "Plus, the Europeans have picked up their inventories in natural gas and diesel. They're in pretty good shape. It looks like we're going to get through this winter, but it comes down to the China situation. Their economy is bad with or without Covid." Rebecca Babin, senior energy trader at CIBC Private Wealth U.S., said if OPEC had been considering a production cut, the market floor would have been lower, in the $70s per barrel range. "Every fundamental signal in the crude market right now is bearish," she said. At least for now, the market expects there will be sufficient supplies even with Russian sanctions, Babin said. "They're going to get around it. ... Every estimate of how much crude that's going to be disrupted has been ratcheted down from 2 million barrels a day to 500,000 barrels over the course of the last three months," Babin said. "They're definitely figuring out every angle. ...They've been way more resourceful than the market originally thought." The outlook for 2023, however, is less clear. "We still broadly remain constructive. Hopes were building for a faster reopening for China. That has not played out," Singh said. He expects the average for Brent to be $98 per barrel for 2023. If crude remains under pressure, it would help reduce inflationary pressures in the global economy. At the same time, investors have been concerned that continued pressures from Covid restrictions in China would weigh on oil and other commodities and weaken the global economy. At Monday's low of $75.08, WTI oil futures were very close to their price at the start of the year of $73.27 per barrel. WTI hit a high of $130.50 per barrel March 7, after Russia invaded Ukraine, the highest price since 2008. — CNBC's Gina Francolla contributed to this story.