Baird downgrades Salesforce, says leadership changes and companies cutting jobs will hurt the stock

Published Thu, Dec 8 20228:12 AM EST

Salesforce could struggle with new leadership in a macro environment that's more difficult to traverse, according to Baird. Analyst Rob Oliver downgraded the stock to neutral from outperform and slashed his target to $150 from $200. The new price target implies an upside of about 15% compared with where it closed Wednesday. "We believe the combination of macro headwinds and seat-based software pressure (driven by recent workforce cuts/hiring slowdown) could pressure revenue growth near term," Oliver said in a note to clients. "The increase in executive turnover ... in aggregate are a surprise and could portend execution risk." Concerns stem mainly from the fact that Salesforce specializes in software tied companies' headcounts, so the slowed hiring and layoffs expected as the economy further tightens will hurt demand. As a result, Oliver cut his expectation for fiscal 2024 revenue and per-share earnings to $34.07 billion and $5.50, respectively, placing both below broader the Wall Street consensus. He also expects fiscal 2025 to bring worst performance than expected, with Oliver anticipating revenue at $38.47 billion and earnings per share at $6.55. Meanwhile, executives including co-CEO Bret Taylor, CSO Gavin Patterson and Slack CEO Stewart Butterfield announced plans to step down. The salvo of departures has lowered confidence in the company's ability to perform in the more challenging environment, Oliver said. Oliver said Salesforce is well placed for a digital transformation and can keep acquiring as it seeks to further grow its total addressable market. Salesforce also stands to gain from increased interest in cloud marketing, he said, through acquisitions of Radian6, BuddyMedia and DemandWare. The company also has room to grow in international markets, he said. But he said the company will also need to grow its non-Sales Cloud business, especially given the outlook for corporate headcounts. On top of this, Oliver said the company will also need to succeed on riskier acquisitions to continue making a positive impact on a company so large. Increased competition through public cloud companies are emerging vendors in more specialized offerings could also hurt the stock. — CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed to this report.