JPMorgan upgrades this materials stock, says it can weather decrease in residential construction

Published Thu, Dec 8 20227:03 AM EST

Expect Vulcan Materials to outperform as its value improves and its business is more shielded than competitors to cooling residential construction, according to JPMorgan. Strategist Adrian Huerta upgraded the stock to overweight from neutral with a price target of $200, which implies upside of 11.7% from Wednesday's close. "The company has the highest exposure among US peers to Aggregates, which is the product we favor the most, while its geographic position is also attractive and largely diversified," he said in a note to clients. "Also, it has the largest exposure to infrastructure." A driver of the upgrade was the fact that Huerta no longer sees the stock trading at a premium to competitor Martin Marietta Materials . That's come down despite its larger exposure to aggregates, an alternative to cement, which is favorable because its' more favored within public construction and has more defensive pricing. Aggregate prices are expected to rise about 9% through increases during the year, he said, with room for further upside. Huerta also likes the materials company because it has the largest exposure to infrastructure compared with peers. Infrastructure volume is expected to grow between 3% and 5% next year. while residential construction volumes are expected to fall between 10% and 15%. Nonresidential will perform around flat, with volume likely to come in somewhere between a loss or gain of 3%. He added that geographic exposure is "attractive and largely diversified," a plus for the stock as volumes differ across the U.S. For example, he said Texas, Colorado, Florida and some Sunbelt states are considered more defensive markets. On the other hand, California would be harder hit — and is already seeing demand fall — from the chill in residential construction. Vulcan shares rose more than 1% in the premarket. They have fallen more than 13% year to date, but that's still outperforming the S & P 500's 17.5% drop. Huerta kept Vulcan rivals Martin Marietta Materials and Summit Materials as overweight and Eagle Materials at a neutral rating. — CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed to this report.