Citi downgrades Robinhood, says crypto uncertainty will weigh on trading platform

Published Tue, Dec 13 20225:53 AM EST

Crypto pressures will keep shares of trading platform Robinhood in check, according to Citi. Analyst Christopher Allen downgraded the stock to neutral from buy. He also cut his price target by $1 to $10, which implies a 4.4% increase over where it closed Monday. "In our view, HOOD has done a lot to right its ship recently, including materially lowering the cost base, improving active trader offerings, and rolling out attractive products," he said in a Monday note to clients. "However, we see a mixed outlook from here given potential headline risk from upcoming SEC market structure proposals, a cautious equity market outlook, and potential fallout from FTX impacting crypto trading revenues and the customer base." Robinhood lost 2.1% in premarket trading. It has dropped 46.1% this year. One of the biggest pressures on the platform is the ongoing debacle related to crypto platform FTX, which imploded last month. FTX was previously considered a potential acquirer of Robinhood, according to Allen. The situation could prompt to the liquidation of Sam Bankman-Fried's 56.3 million shares, or 7.4% of shares outstanding, of Robinhood outstanding shares in Robinhood. Bankman-Fried, the former FTX CEO, was arrested in the Bahamas Monday . Lower crypto trading revenues have weighed on prices and raised concerns among investors and customers, Allen said. He expects Robinhood's trading revenues from crypto to fall by 50% or more in 2022 and 2023. Crypto was supposed to help lead international growth, he said. But Allen said Robinhood can still expand its business through retirement accounts and other revenue streams. The company has also seen user growth moderate after an 82% jump in year-over-year net active accounts in 2021. Funded accounts are expected to see a net growth of around 3% in both 2023 and 2024 following the uncertainty caused by crypto, Allen said. Still, Allen said he sees long-term potential despite crypto-fueled near term challenges. He said he remains cautiously optimistic for options, which should see 6% and 14% trading growth in 2023 and 2024. Allen is more cautious for equities given the meme stock trading seen in 2021 and said growth will be near flat in 2023 with healthy volatility. — CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed to this report.