Guggenheim downgrades Tesla to sell, says fourth-quarter estimates are too optimistic

Published Fri, Jan 13 20237:05 AM ESTUpdated Fri, Jan 13 20239:35 AM EST

Guggenheim said Friday that Tesla 's fourth-quarter expectations are too high — and its stock could struggle as a result. Analyst Ronald Jewsikow downgraded the stock to sell from neutral over concerns about the electric vehicle maker's fourth-quarter estimates. He assigned a price target of $89, which presents a 28% downside from Thursday's close. Jewsikow said to expect Tesla to miss sizable gross margin expectations in the fourth quarter due to price cuts and other incentives. He added that full-year 2023 expectations need to be reset. The analyst also noted that key demand indicators remain weak even as the price of a Tesla has fallen at three times the rate of the market over the last three months. Jewsikow pointed to further price cuts seen this week as a negative for equipment manufacturers and the price pool. "Overall, heading into a challenging backdrop in FY23, we believe TSLA had to decide whether to sacrifice volume growth or gross margins, and based on pricing actions, the answer appears to be gross margins," Jewsikow said in a note to clients. "This creates a difficult narrative for a stock still trading at ~30x our FY23 estimates, which we now forecast to grow at just a ~10% CAGR over the next 3 years." Tesla slid 5% in premarket trading. The stock lost 65% in 2022 as the electric vehicle maker first started turning to price cuts to buoy demand and CEO Elon Musk completed a chaotic purchase of Twitter . Jewsikow is not the only analyst on Wall Street growing bearish. While maintaining a hold rating on the stock, Citi analyst Itay Michaeli cut his price target to $140 from $176. His new price target implies the stock will see a 13.3% upside over Thursday's close as opposed to the 42.4% previously expected. Michaeli said 2023 vehicle deliveries will increase 40% in 2023, a year-over-year slowdown from a 53% growth rate. Automotive gross margin growth will come in around 27.5% in 2022 before slowing modestly to 27.3% in 2023, he said. His fourth-quarter 2022 earnings per share estimates are slightly higher than Wall Street's consensus. However, his 2023 full-year estimate is 6% lower than the Street's consensus, in line with his lower-than-expected delivery outlook. The lowered 2023 estimates have in turn pushed down longer-term estimates for Tesla, Michaeli said. But he said his valuation reflects the potential for Tesla to improve its position in a downturn. Meanwhile, Wells Fargo analyst Colin Langan cut his target for the stock by $100 to $130, noting slowing growth could result in the stock losing its technology-driven valuation. — CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed to this report.