Wells Fargo says buy this regional bank stock that has been 'thrown out with the bathwater,' sees nearly 150% upside

Published Tue, Mar 14 20236:10 AM EDTUpdated Tue, Mar 14 20237:42 AM EDT

Investors should snap up shares of beaten-down regional bank Western Alliance, according to Wells Fargo. The firm reiterated its overweight rating on the stock, while lowering its price target to $65 from $90. Still, the new price target implies 148.9% upside from the stock's Monday closing price of $26.12. "We view the risk/reward as attractive here for WAL with shares trading at 60% of [tangible book value] and come away with a new renewed sense of optimism following our conversation with [management]," analyst Timur Braziler wrote in a note on Monday. "Mgt. update as of 3/9 had total deposits increasing an impressive $7.8B, or 15% Q/Q, and the update on Monday indicated only a 'moderate' outflow since." Western Alliance shares declined 47% on Monday as part of a massive selloff of regional bank stocks following the failures of SVB Financial and Signature Bank. Braziler, however, thinks that Western Alliance's higher deposit balances quarter-to-date do not match up to the stock's tumble of over 60% since Mar. 8, and views a run on deposits as unlikely. The stock has been "thrown out with the bathwater," said Braziler. "WAL got lumped with banks having an elevated perception of risk given its exposure to private markets and incorrect Street analysis of their exposure to uninsured deposits." Wells Fargo views Western Alliance as among the "most diversified banks from both a product offering and geographic standpoint," giving it confidence that it will outperform amidst the SVB-fueled volatility and interest rate hikes. "Management continues to prove its ability to operate among the fastest-growing banks with excellent credit quality regardless of operating environment. We expect WAL to be one of the few institutions to not skip a beat in the coming quarters, with management seeing good visibility in growing deposits 13-17% in 2023," wrote Braziler. Western Alliance shares were up 18.2% during premarket trading on Tuesday. Shares are down 56.1% year to date. —CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed to this report.