Barclays bets the tech rally will falter, lays out an options strategy to play it

Published Tue, Mar 21 20233:24 PM EDTUpdated Tue, Mar 21 20233:53 PM EDT

With the comeback in technology stocks likely to fade, Barclays says it's time for investors to consider an options strategy that would capitalize on their decline. "We suggest buying put spreads on US Tech as its recent strength is unlikely to prove enduring," wrote analyst Anshul Gupta in a Tuesday note. Investors in recent weeks have flocked to tech stocks — particularly megacaps — as a safe haven amid the banking turmoil rattling markets. These stocks typically offer strong cash flows and fortress balance sheets better situated to weather a downturn. This month, Alphabet has surged 16%, while Meta Platforms and Salesforce have climbed about 15% each. Nvidia and Microsoft have gained 13% and 9%, respectively. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite , meanwhile, has outperformed its major average peers, up more than 3%. .IXIC 1M mountain The Nasdaq Composite's gained 2.6% so far this month But Barclays expects the recent tech outperformance to falter, viewing the sector as overvalued and trading at a premium to pre-pandemic levels. Given this backdrop, Barclays recommends fading this rally and betting that tech stocks will go down, using the Invesco QQQ Trust — which tracks the Nasdaq-100 index. The trade involves buying a put on the QQQ with a higher exercise price and selling one on the QQQ with a lower strike. This is commonly referred to as a put spread, which refers to buying and selling put options with the same expiry date to hedge a trade and reduce risk. It marks a cheaper way for investors to bet on a tech downtrend, since selling the second put lowers the cost basis for the trade. The put spread, however, caps the upside of the trade, because if tech stocks fall substantially, the second put will get exercised. "Specifically, we suggest buying QQQ May23 305/260 put spreads ... with a max payout ratio of 4.9:1," Gupta said. Put options are contracts that give traders the right, but not the obligation, to sell a stock at a specified strike price. — CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed reporting.