Don't expect Nvidia's rally to lose steam, Citi says

Published Mon, Jul 17 20237:26 AM EDTUpdated Mon, Jul 17 202311:02 AM EDT

Nvidia shares have more room to run, even after notching all-time highs this year, according to Citi. Analyst Atif Malik raised his price target by $100 to $520 while maintaining his buy rating. Malik's target implies an upside of 14.4% over the next year. That means Malik sees more steam in Nvidia's rally. The stock has skyrocketed more than 200% to all-time highs since the start of the year as investors have grown increasingly excited about the potential for artificial intelligence. NVDA YTD mountain Nvidia's strong year Malik's bull case implies the rally could go even further to $600 per share, or another 32% from Friday's close. That share price would be more than four times higher where the stock finished in 2022. But neither his price target nor bull case are considered outlandish for the stock. Though both are above the average analyst's price target of $479.22, neither exceeds the highest price target on Wall Street of $767 per share, according to Refinitiv. Nvidia is considered a clear AI winner, he said, with more than 90% of market share in a market for AI acceleration that's expected to be valued around $150 billion in 2027. Malik said Nvidia should have a "substantial advantage" in the AI space over Advanced Micro Devices going forward. When it comes to software, Malik said competitors will need multiple generations to match what Nvidia has developed. It also continues to lead on graphics processing units on the accelerator and system levels, he added. In addition to the price target hike, Malik also raised his outlook for earnings per share in upcoming years. He now expects EPS to be 6% higher than previously anticipated in the 2024 fiscal year. In 2025 and 2026, EPS should be 38% and 30% higher, respectively. Despite the bullish outlook, he noted stock performance could be affected by increased gaming competition, slower-than-expected adoption of new technology, difficulties in data center or auto markets or crypto mining if it weighs on gaming sales. "We continue to see favorable risk-reward on accelerating Y/Y data center sales through the year with China ban, slower macro impact on gaming demand, and competition as key near- to long-term downside risks," Malik said. — CNBC's Michael Bloom contributed to this report.